Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 20, 2022

UnitedHealth Group Beats Estimates and Once Again Raises Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc moved higher by ~5% during normal trading hours on July 15 after reporting a stellar earnings update. The health care giant once again raised its full-year earnings guidance for 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings update. Shares of UNH have held up quite well year-to-date in the face of volatile capital markets. On July 15, UnitedHealth Group reported second quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The health care giant also boosted its non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance to $21.40-$21.90 for 2022, up from $21.20-$21.70 previously, in conjunction with it second quarter earnings update. Please note that this is the second time UnitedHealth Group has increased its earnings guidance for 2022 (it also boosted its full-year forecasts back in April 2022), and we appreciate management’s confidence in UnitedHealth Group’s near term outlook. We include UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and shares of UNH yield ~1.3% as of this writing. At the high end of our fair value estimate range, we assign UnitedHealth Group a fair value estimate of $599 per share, well above where UNH is trading at as of this writing. UnitedHealth Group has a fortress-like balance sheet, “moaty” business characteristics, a bright growth outlook, and is a stellar free cash flow generator.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."

Jun 26, 2022

Valuentum's Dividend Growth Strategy 'Outperforming'
Image: The Valuentum Dividend Growth strategy has delivered thus far in 2022. With the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, down 18.1% (negative 18.1%) thus far in 2022 and the S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) down 6.7% (negative 6.7%), the Valuentum dividend growth strategy, as measured by the hypothetical performance of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (as shown above), is down an estimated 4.6% (negative 4.6%) so far in 2022, all on a price-only basis. Though two percentage points better than the S&P High Yield Dividend Dividend Aristocrats Index doesn't seem like much, the large cap tilt of the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio makes such "outperformance" significant and material. The benefits of a dividend growth strategy, in general, have also been on display so far in 2022, with the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio "outperforming" the SPY by an estimated ~13.5 percentage points, on a price-only basis. With the half year mark of 2022 nearing, we wanted to continue to provide updates on the "performance" tracking across a variety of our publications. In case you missed them, please find the year-to-date evaluations of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the Exclusive capital appreciation and short idea considerations, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, as well as our additional options commentary for your convenience. The links are provided as follows. In this article, we'll talk about the "performance" of the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio relative to traditional benchmarks and in the context of modern portfolio theory, though we stress that our dividend growth focus is on long-term income expansion not short-term relative price performance, per se.

Jun 18, 2022

The Stock Market Is Nearing Technical Support Levels
Image: This year has been a difficult one for equity investors, but the selling pressure that has been common in the markets may start to slow as broader indices such as the S&P 500 begin to approach technical support levels. On the S&P 500, we think there is substantial technical support in the 3,200-3,500 range, which to us suggests that further near-term downside may be limited. The S&P 500 closed at 3,674.84 on Friday, June 17, and we think fair value is much higher. What might be a fair value for the S&P 500 today? Well, throwing the 10-year S&P 500 average multiple of 16.9x on 2023 expected earnings numbers of 251.76 gets to a 4,255 mark on the S&P 500, which is above the last closing level of 3,674.84 for the index. Benchmark Treasury rates remain low relative to history, and balance sheets of many S&P 500 companies are overflowing with net cash, supporting such a multiple, too. All told, investors might expect the stock market to hit technical support levels on the S&P 500 of 3,200-3,500 in the near term, but from where we stand, stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration over the long haul.

Jun 10, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of June 10
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jun 2, 2022

Shares of Top Biotech Idea Vertex Pharma Volatile But Company Fundamentals Sound
Image Shown: Shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc have surged higher during the past year. We continue to like the biotech firm in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The biopharmaceutical space is full of attractive investment opportunities, though early-stage firms without commercialized drug portfolios are quite risky investments given their lack of meaningful revenues and sizable negative cash flows. Vertex Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, has a commercialized portfolio of therapeutics that treat cystic fibrosis (‘CF’) which enables the biotech firm to generate substantial revenues and cash flows. We include Vertex Pharma as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Apr 21, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Boosts Guidance
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc has seen its share price surge higher over the past year. One of our favorite dividend growth ideas is UnitedHealth Group. The company runs an expansive portfolio of domestic health care operations including large health insurance businesses, pharmacy benefits managers (‘PBMs’) and specialty pharmacy businesses, outpatient surgical centers, in-home health care service providers, analytical services, and services geared towards administrative activities, among many other operations involving health care. Its four business reporting segments are Optum Health (national health care delivery platform), Optum Insight (services, analytics, and platforms aimed at generating insights and efficiencies while improving patient outcomes), Optum Rx (portfolio of pharmacy care services), and UnitedHealthcare (portfolio of health insurance businesses). Shares of UNH yield ~1.1% as of this writing.

Apr 20, 2022

Shares of Newsletter Portfolio Idea Johnson & Johnson Off to the Races!
Image Shown: Shares of Johnson & Johnson, an idea in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, are shifting higher. On April 19, Johnson & Johnson reported first-quarter earnings for 2022 that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The company lowered its guidance for 2022, but shares of JNJ rallied during regular trading hours that day as its underlying performance remains strong. J&J suspended guidance for its coronavirus ('COVID-19') vaccine sales, though we want to stress that these sales were not needle-moving as it concerns our estimate of the company’s fair value. The firm was selling the vaccines on a not-for-profit basis and didn’t intend to change that until the end of this year or until 2023 (or potentially never). J&J also pushed through a 7% sequential increase in its dividend on April 19, with 2022 marking its 60th consecutive year of payout increases, earning the firm the coveted Dividend Aristocrat status. We include shares of JNJ in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Shares of JNJ yield ~2.5% as of this writing. Johnson & Johnson’s business model is in the process of getting fundamentally altered due to the planned separation of its consumer health business from its pharmaceutical and medical devices operations, which is expected to occur within less than two years. As we have noted in the past, J&J is also steadily working on putting its various legal issues behind it, though its planned business separation along with its legal issues fundamentally altered its proposition as a straightforward dividend growth opportunity. We continue to like J&J in our newsletter portfolios, though we are keeping a close eye on how its business separation strategy will ultimately pan out. Let's dig into the details in this article.