Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 23, 2020

Why *NOW* Do You Care About Boeing’s Stock?
Image Source: Robert Sullivan. In no, way shape or form should you *now* be interested in Boeing’s stock. Let’s explain.

Jan 23, 2020

Why Natural Gas Prices are So Low and Will Likely Remain So for Some Time
Image Source: Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation – November 2019 IR Presentation. Domestic natural gas strip prices in the US are trading at rock bottom levels as of this writing, and we expect the pain will only continue. There are many reasons why natural gas prices in the US are quite low right now including surging associated production (gas supplies produced alongside oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids) from unconventional upstream plays where natural gas is viewed more so as a nuisance than a marketable product given the liquids-oriented economics of those plays, surging non-associated production (natural gas supplies are the only product) out of Appalachia over the past decade (the growth in natural gas production in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia has been astounding due to the Marcellus and Utica shale plays), and the lack of the kind of serious weather-related demand this winter season (such as a very cold winter in North America, especially in the Midwest and East Coast) that can quickly drain flush storage facilities.

Jan 22, 2020

Economic Commentary: Bank Earnings, US-China Phase One No Big Deal and More
Bloomberg recently reported that U.S. banks’ record-breaking earnings have likely peaked for this cycle. We’ll get the team’s thoughts on this, and we’ll also cover views on the corporate credit cycle, China GDP, and the US election cycle. We don’t think the US-China Phase One deal amounts to much, other than removing the uncertainty that it, itself, created.

Jan 21, 2020

PPG Industries’ Latest Earnings Report Indicates Softer Industrial Activity Ahead
Image Shown: Capitalizing on the various lucrative opportunities the aerospace industry offers PPG Industries Inc underpins its long-term free cash flow trajectory. Image Source: PPG Industries – December 2019 IR Presentation. On January 16, maker of painting, coating, and specialty materials PPG Industries posted fourth quarter earnings for 2019. The firm has performed well in the aerospace and marine industries, and we emphasize its growing exposure to the aerospace industry underpins the strength of its free cash flow trajectory. That said, let's walk through PPG Industries' quarterly performance to get a feel for how broader industrial activity is trending and why economic softness may be looming.

Jan 17, 2020

Why We Like Republic Services Over Casella
Image Source: Republic Services Inc – 2018 Annual Report. Let's talk about the story of two garbage haulers, one that is extremely pricey and one that we just added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Casella has experienced an impressive growth spurt during the past few years, and we model in substantial growth in the coming years, but now the rally in CWST has gotten ahead of itself. Given the unsystematic risks Casella faces and the enormous amount of growth priced into its stock, shares of CWST could fall materially should the company stumble. We prefer the stability and strength of Republic Services in terms of its large geographical footprint, managed debt maturity schedule, investment-grade credit ratings, and free cash flow growth outlook. Republic Services also pays out a nice dividend with room for substantial payout growth, while Casella is using its free cash flows to fund its growth ambitions. We like Republic Services as a top quality defensive addition to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The non-hazardous solid waste disposal industry is quite lucrative and one that offers a lot of upside, keeping in mind the current economic expansion is long in the tooth. Having some exposure to more defensive industries is a prudent move, in our view.

Jan 17, 2020

Bank of America Gaining Share
Image Source: Bank of America Earnings Presentation. We are increasing our fair value estimate of Bank of America to $40 per share, as we view the market share gains at the bank and steady loan and deposit growth to be more sustainable than we had previously envisioned. We like the bank’s solid franchise, the management team, and we like the shares here as it tries to catch up with larger peer JPMorgan.

Jan 17, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the Integrated Circuits Industry
Image Source: Yuri Samoilov. We've optimized our technology coverage.

Jan 16, 2020

Alcoa’s Turnaround Still a Work in Progress
Image Shown: It has been rough for Alcoa Corporation over the past couple of years as the company faces a slowing global industrial economy while trying to optimize its asset base and overall operations in a bid to save on costs. After the market close on January 15, alumina, aluminum, and bauxite product leader Alcoa Corp reported earnings covering the fourth quarter of 2019. The company’s top- and bottom-line results missed consensus expectations. Alcoa is trading at the lower bound of our fair value estimate range and shares appear fairly valued. With global industrial activity slowing down considerably, we aren’t optimistic on Alcoa’s outlook. Material asset base and operational changes will help, but there’s only so much that can be done given the firm’s looming liabilities. Even with the US-China semi-trade truce now in effect, Alcoa still has plenty of work to do to turn this ship in the right direction. We continue to stay away from Alcoa, but appreciate management attempting to bring down the firm’s net debt/liability burden via divestments and free cash flow.

Jan 15, 2020

Visa Enhances Its Long-Term Outlook
On January 13, top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa announced it was buying financial tech company Plaid for $5.3 billion. Plaid primarily offers a network that allows consumers to connect financial accounts to apps securely and safely, meaning that when a consumer downloads a mobile financial-oriented app to their phone (for example), Plaid is the company that ensures a smooth connection between app and the relevant financial institution when it comes to transferring information and ultimately money. What’s important about this acquisition is that Visa, once again, is showcasing its ability to spot and capitalize on high quality opportunities within the financial services space.

Jan 14, 2020

Disney Joins the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company have performed well over the past year, and we see room for additional upside. Media and entertainment giant The Walt Disney Company was just added to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Though the firm does not register the typically high Valuentum Buying Index rating that we would prefer with new additions (sometimes we have to relax criteria to achieve newsletter portfolio goals), we like Disney’s business model and its future free cash flows are underpinned by: a top quality intellectual property (‘IP’) portfolio that’s practically impossible to replace, the immense profitability of its theme parks (which benefit from its strong and ever-growing IP portfolio i.e. adding Star Wars-themed rides), its strength in streaming (Disney owns ~67% of Hulu and Disney+ has reportedly been a big hit initially), its position in live sports (one of the few reasons why households keep cable, or choose higher priced streaming packages) is top notch (ESPN, which Disney owns ~80% of, now has ESPN+ to offer incremental upside), and the company should be able to wring out synergies after buying 21st Century Fox (the deal closed in March 2019) through a ~$71 billion cash-and-stock deal.