Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 12, 2022

Best Idea Dollar General Roaring Higher
Image Shown: We like the niche Dollar General Corporation has carved out for itself in the competitive discount retail industry. Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – Fiscal 2021 Annual Report. Though the discount store retail industry is incredibly competitive, we like the niche that Dollar General Corp has carved out for itself by targeting towns and cities in the U.S. with populations of 20,000 or less. These are regions where e-commerce economics are not attractive due to hefty fulfillment costs, and often are underserved in terms of shopping options. Dollar General operates over 18,100 stores across 46 U.S. states and is included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We continue to be big fans of Dollar General. Our fair value estimate stands at $234 per share of DG with room for upside as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $281 per share.

Apr 10, 2022

Cash-Based Sources of Intrinsic Value for Meta Platforms and PayPal Remain Strong
Image Shown: Shares of Meta Platforms Inc (blue line) and PayPal Holdings Inc (orange line) have staged a nice comeback during the past month, as of the start of April 2022. Rising interest rates and the impact that has had on the market's discount rate implicitly used within the enterprise cash flow pricing process has pressured the value of equities with long free-cash-flow growth tails--stocks that are expected to grow at a meaningful premium over global economic growth over the coming decades. The rapid increase in the 10-year Treasury rate, no doubt, has had a profound impact on the equity values of long-duration cash-flow companies such as those held in the ultra-speculative ARK Innovation ETF, for example. However, established big cap tech firms and many fintech entities shouldn't necessarily be as impacted by rising interest rates as those of many currently money-losing speculative innovation names that won't generate meaningful levels of free cash flow for 5 to 10 years, maybe longer. For example, shares of companies such as Apple Inc. or Microsoft Corp. should only have but a muted impact from rising rates; these companies have huge net cash positions and are already generating strong free cash flow. It can even be argued that higher inflation/rates will afford Apple and Microsoft pricing power to raise product and software prices. While we might expect the ARK Innovation ETF to be down nearly 40% year-to-date and more than half during the past 52 weeks, we don't think it makes a lot of sense for some of the strongest, large cap growth names to be off ~12%, on average, year-to-date. We think the market, in many instances and especially within the area of technology, is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Shares of Meta Platforms Inc, formerly Facebook, and PayPal Holdings Inc are two such names that the market has been beating down too much, in our view. Though some weakness in Meta Platform's and PayPal's shares can be expected in the current market environment, year-to-date declines of 30%+ and 40%+, respectively, are a bit much. That said, during the past few months, we have reduced our fair value estimates for both Meta Platforms and PayPal for good reasons. For starters, Meta Platforms is investing heavily in the metaverse, a digital universe, and is scaling up its data center capacity to support its efforts on this front (which is driving its capital expenditure and operating cost expectations up sharply in the medium-term). Meta Platforms is not expected to make a meaningful amount or any money on these investments for some time. PayPal is facing headwinds from hefty customer acquisition costs to grow its active user base amid rising competitive threats. We also think that we may have been too aggressive within our valuation model when we built in too much earnings leverage during the next five years at PayPal. Said another way, the fintech company’s mid-cycle operating margin is not what we once though it was--as PayPal will find it difficult to meaningfully expand its margins in the current environment. However, putting it all together, these pressures and others have all been reflected in our current fair value estimates (and fair value estimate ranges) for Meta Platforms, which sits at $367 per share, and PayPal, which sits at $152 per share. Both companies are included as ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we are beginning to see signs of a rebound underway. For long-term investors, we think Meta Platforms is a no-brainer at current prices, though we may be a bit more cautious on PayPal, which is now more of a "show-me" story, given recent hiccups. All this having been said, let's dig in to why we still like Meta Platforms and PayPal.

Apr 7, 2022

Best Biotech Idea Vertex Pharma Outperforming Struggling Peers, Its New Treatment for Pain a Game Changer in the Fight Against the Opioid Epidemic
Image: Vertex Pharma has advanced more than 18% since the beginning of 2021, trouncing the performance of the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF by an incredible margin. The outperformance gap stands at more than 50+ percentage points at the time of this writing. We were blown away by the phase II results released March 31 at Vertex Pharma for its non-opioid, non-addictive pain killer, the NaV1.8 inhibitor VX-548, and we think the molecule has the potential to provide a solution to the widespread opioid crisis in a meaningful way. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, tens of thousands of deaths each year are “attributed to overdosing on synthetic opioids.” The company’s phase II results for VX-548 provide “proof of concept” in order to push the study to more advanced studies, and we are highly encouraged. We also note that the long-term revenue and earnings potential for VX-548 is not included in our valuation model for Vertex Pharma and would offer pure incremental upside to our fair value estimate. VX-548 could be a game-changer in the fight against the opioid epidemic, in our view.

Apr 6, 2022

Lululemon Firing on All Cylinders; Shares Recovering
Image Shown: Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc are recovering in the wake of the company’s recent earnings report. On March 29, Lululemon Athletica Inc reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended January 30, 2022) that matched consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. Lululemon also announced it had initiated a new $1.0 billion stock buyback program after completing its previous program in the first quarter of fiscal 2022. The company issued favorable guidance for fiscal 2022 during its latest earnings update, which helped drive shares of LULU sharply higher during normal trading hours on March 30. Shares of LULU are up more than 20% during the past 52 weeks through the time of this writing, more than doubling the return of the S&P 500 during that time. We value shares north of $400 each at the time of this writing, revealing significant potential upside should price-to-fair value estimate convergence materialize.

Apr 1, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week April 1
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Mar 30, 2022

WEC Energy Is a Solid Utility with a Nice Yield
Image Source: WEC Energy Group Inc – March 2022 IR Presentation. WEC Energy Group Inc is a holding company that owns electric and natural gas utilities in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois), a ~60% stake in American Transmission Company (its service area is in the Upper Midwest and overlaps with the operations of WEC Energy’s other utility assets), and the merchant power firm WEC Infrastructure. WEC Energy serves roughly 4.6 million customers across its service area. Some of its electric and natural gas utilities include Upper Michigan Energy Resources Corporation, Wisconsin Public Service Corporation, Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation, Peoples Energy LLC, The Peoples Gas Light and Coke Company, North Shore Gas Company, W.E. Power, Michigan Gas Utilities, and more. The bulk of WEC Energy’s asset base is represented by regulated utility operations which have incredibly stable and predictable cash flow profiles given the regulatory environment these companies operate in.

Mar 29, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea Newmont Surging Higher
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea Newmont Corporation have surged higher since January 2020. Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed COMEX gold prices to the $1,900-$2,000 per troy ounce range as of this writing in late March 2022. We added the gold miner Newmont Corp to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back in January 2020 to gain modest exposure to the gold industry. Shares of NEM are trading near the high end of our fair value estimate range of $78 per share as of this writing after surging ~31% over the past year. Newmont has a variable dividend policy that includes a base and variable payout. Shares of NEM yield ~2.8% on a trailing twelve month basis, and we continue to be big fans of the name.

Mar 29, 2022

Nike Holding Its Own Against Major Exogenous Shocks
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc are on an upward climb again after dropping significantly from November 2021 to March 2022. Nike is holding its own in the face of major exogenous headwinds. The firm’s pivot towards D2C and digital sales are having a powerful impact on its business and underlying financial performance. We appreciate that Nike is a stellar generator of shareholder value, though we caution that inflationary headwinds and supply chain hurdles loom large over its near term outlook, as does the Ukraine-Russia crisis due to rising fuel expenses and the risk that portions of the global economy (particularly developing and emerging markets) may enter a recession. We continue to be bullish on U.S. equities and the domestic economy.

Mar 24, 2022

Public Storage Is a High-Quality Income Generation Idea
Image Shown: Public Storage, a self-storage REIT that is included as an idea in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, is a stellar cash flow generator with a bright growth outlook. We are huge fans of the self-storage REIT industry, particularly in the US, due to the ability of companies operating in this space to fully cover their total dividend obligations with their free cash flows. Image Source: Public Storage – March 2022 IR Presentation. The self-storage industry is an attractive space for investors seeking income generating opportunities, particularly real estate investment trusts (‘REITs’) with a sizable presence in the U.S. market. The self-storage REIT owns economic interests in 2,800+ self-storage properties across the U.S. Public Storage is a cash flow generating powerhouse that historically has fully covered its total dividend obligations with its free cash flows. Its promising growth outlook and strong financial position underpins the REIT’s dividend strength. Shares of PSA yield ~2.2% as of this writing.

Mar 23, 2022

Johnson & Johnson’s Outlook Improving, Steadily Putting Legal Issues Behind It
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On a price-only basis, shares of Johnson & Johnson are up ~2% year-to-date through the end of regular trading hours March 22, while the S&P 500 is down ~6% during this period. We include shares of Johnson & Johnson as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, and we love the company's resiliency in the face of whatever challenges are thrown at it. Investors now have a much better idea of what Johnson & Johnson’s legal settlement liabilities could end up looking like as compared to where things stood a year ago, and while the pending spinoff of its consumer health operations has fundamentally altered its proposition as a straightforward dividend growth opportunity, the stock continues to hold up in an otherwise tumultuous environment. We're not counting J&J out by any means, and the stock remains a core holding in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.