Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Alert -- Chinese Stocks Hit the Skids
Image Source: Michael Vadon. We don’t think US and China are anywhere close to any sort of meaningful trade agreement, regardless of what you hear from the White House. The latest move in this high-stakes trade war by the US may be to de-list Chinese stocks. This actually happening seems surreal given the implications on U.S. investors, but given weakness in US-listed Chinese names, the market is factoring in some probability of this occurring.

Feb 8, 2018

Rising Risk Free Rates Threatening Market, Removing CVS and Hanesbrands
The most important variable to keep your eye on, the 10-year Treasury, is rising, and the long-term implications on equity values could be considerable. We don’t think the moves thus far have been too disruptive, but continued concerns over US tax receipts and infrastructure/defense spending could send sovereign yields roaring higher. As fourth-quarter earnings season marches on, let’s take a look at some meaningful recent quarterly reports. We’re also shedding two companies from the simulated newsletter portfolios.

Feb 7, 2018

Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back
Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 - The Missile Defense Agency's Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine -- All of this over just a couple basis point increase in the 10-year and one very, very small ETF losing most of its value? What if something truly material happens? This market is fragile.

Jan 14, 2018

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!
Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings. Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

May 4, 2016

China
Image Source: Mike Behnken. Everyone is talking about China.

Jul 28, 2015

The Chinese Market Is Rigged
Let’s face it. Nobody knows where the market clearing price is for most of the companies listed on the Chinese exchanges. The government won’t allow price discovery, which means “real” prices are far lower than today’s levels.

Jul 1, 2015

Alibaba Shares Disappoint
Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Alibaba has performed poorly in recent weeks, and we’re just as disappointed as anyone.

Dec 9, 2014

Yikes! Investor Expectations
Let’s touch on China and expose some serious risks. We’re evaluating put protection in the newsletter portfolios again.

Nov 21, 2014

Europe and China
We’re starting to see more cracks in the global economy.

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Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor