Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 24, 2022

ICYMI (Aug 19) -- ALERT -- PYPL, META, GOOG, V -- Making Some Big Changes in the Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
Image Shown: We are very happy with the overall "performance" of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, which is carving out 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022 on a price-only basis, as shown in the table above. However, we're making some big changes to the simulated newsletter portfolio today on some of our favorite names. Our best ideas continue to be in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, the simulated ESG Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, as well as with our additional options commentary. We're making some big moves in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio today! At the moment, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is carving out about 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022, on a price-only basis relative to the the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF. Overall, after some huge years, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is down a modest ~8.6% in 2022, by our estimates. Pretty good, all things considered. That said, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has bounced right off its 200-day moving average (technical resistance), and we're not going to sit by while the risks to the market this year increase. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul, of course, but we think incremental alpha may be generated by removing/trimming/adding to some of our winners in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at this time. We're changing our mind on a couple things, too, as any good investor does. [This note was emailed to members August 19.]

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."

Jun 9, 2022

Best Idea Dollar General Beats Consensus Estimates and Raises Guidance in the Face of Substantial Headwinds
Image Shown: Dollar General Corporation’s GAAP net sales rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 on a year-over-year basis due to growth in its net store count. Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – May 2022 8-K SEC Filing. As a discount retailer, Dollar General is contending with myriad headwinds though its underlying business is holding up quite well. We continue to view its capital appreciation upside potential quite favorably, and its dividend program offers incremental upside potential. Shares of DG yield ~1.0% as of this writing.

May 11, 2022

Domino’s Longer Term Growth Runway Intact, Chipotle's Free Cash Flow Remains Robust
Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – 2022 ICR Conference Presentation. Domino’s Pizza is contending with serious inflationary pressures and headwinds from changing consumer spending habits as the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic fades. We continue to view the firm’s longer term outlook quite favorably and appreciate its franchise-heavy business model (~98% of its stores are franchised), which enables Domino’s to generate substantial free cash flows in almost any operating environment. Our fair value estimate for Domino’s sits at $517 per share, and we include shares of DPZ as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Shares of DPZ yield ~1.3% as of this writing, offering incremental income generation upside potential to its favorable capital appreciation risk-reward scenario, in our view. Another one of our favorite restaurants, Chipotle Mexican Grill posted 9.0% year-over-year comparable restaurant sales growth in the first quarter of 2022. During Chipotle’s latest earnings call, management noted that in-store sales surged 33% due to the economy opening back up and consumers resuming “normal” dining activities. The firm’s digital sales held up relatively well and represented 42% of Chipotle’s total sales last quarter. During the period, Chipotle reported 16% year-over-year GAAP revenue growth and 18% year-over-year GAAP operating income growth as the firm effectively took advantage of its pricing power to get ahead of inflationary pressures. As with Domino's, we continue to like Chipotle as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 10, 2022

Chipotle Sees Bigger Unit Growth Opportunity in North America, Continued Pricing Power
Image: Chipotle’s shares look like they are poised to breakout of a downtrend on news that its long-term unit restaurant opportunity is bigger than expected and that its pricing power remains intact. Chipotle's fast-casual focus and premium food offerings coupled with its Chipotlane rollouts and its breakfast “call option” are a few things that give the company a runway for continued strength that may be unprecedented by an established brand, particularly as it sees an even greater opportunity for unit development in North America than it did before. Because it serves a higher-end fast-casual customer, we think product pricing ahead of inflation won’t be an issue (helping to augment margins), and we’re reiterating our fair value estimate of ~$1,640 per share, above where shares are currently trading at the time of this writing (~$1,580 per share). A more optimistic take on Chipotle could see shares reach the higher end of our fair value estimate range of ~$1,970 per share.