Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Netflix Raises 2025 Revenue and Margin Guidance
Image Source: Netflix. During the second quarter, Netflix generated cash from operating activities of $2.4 billion versus $1.3 billion in the prior-year period. Free cash flow in the second quarter totaled $2.3 billion versus $1.2 billion in the year-ago period. Netflix raised its full year 2025 free cash flow forecast to the range of $8-$8.5 billion from approximately $8 billion due to continued strength in revenue and margin performance. The company ended the quarter with gross debt of $14.5 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $8.2 billion. We liked Netflix’s second quarter and outlook, but we don’t include shares in any newsletter portfolio.

Taiwan Semiconductor’s Revenue Performance Is Fantastic
Image Source: Taiwan Semi. In the second quarter, TSM’s shipments of 3-nanometer accounted for 24% of total wafer revenue, while 5-nanometer accounted for 36%, and 7-nanometer accounted for 14%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue. The company ended the quarter with NT$2,634.43 billion in cash and marketable securities and NT$883.67 billion in long-term interest-bearing debts. Free cash flow was NT$199.85 billion in the quarter, up from NT$171.99 billion in the second quarter of 2024. We liked TSM’s second quarter results and third quarter guidance and continue to like shares in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

ASML Cannot Confirm Growth in 2026 at This Stage
Image: ASML's shares fell under pressure following uncertainty regarding expected 2026 performance. ASML’s second quarter results were solid, and we liked its sequential bookings growth in the quarter. The company’s revenue and gross margin guidance for the third quarter was also good, but margins look to face some pressure on a sequential basis. During the quarter, ASML repurchased around €1.4 billion worth of shares. Though we thought performance by the firm was great in the quarter, management’s commentary that it could not confirm growth in 2026 at this stage left something to be desired. We continue to be positive on ASML’s shares, nonetheless.

Key Comments from the Banks This Earnings Season
Image: The big banks have done well recently. Let's read through key comments from banking executives this earnings season.

Fastenal’s Second Quarter Results a Positive Read Through for the Broader Economy
Image Source: TradingView. Fastenal’s “manufacturing end markets outperformed primarily due to the relative strength (it is) experiencing with key account customers with significant managed spend where (its) service model and technology are particularly impactful. This disproportionately benefits manufacturing customers. The non-residential construction end market experienced growth for the first time in ten consecutive quarters. Other end market sales were favorably impacted by growth with warehousing and storage, and data center customers, which were partially offset by declining sales with resellers.” We liked Fastenal’s results, and the report is a positive read through to the broader U.S. economy.

Delta Air Lines Restores Financial Guidance
Image Source: TradingView. Delta’s restoration of its financial guidance is positive as it relates to financial visibility, particularly with respect to the impact tariffs may have on consumer spending for travel. As noted in its commentary, fiscal 2025 earnings per share is targeted in the range of $5.25-$6.25, with free cash flow of $3-$4 billion and gross leverage less than 2.5x. Management noted that “demand trends stabilized at levels that are flat to last year” through the quarter and that it “continued to see resilience in (its) diverse, high-margin revenue streams.” For the September quarter, Delta expects total revenue to be flat to up 4% compared to the prior year. Non-fuel unit costs are expected to be the best performance of the year in the September quarter. Delta also upped its quarterly dividend 25% beginning in the September quarter. We like Delta’s enhanced visibility in restoring its guidance, though we think there are better opportunities on the market than airlines. Shares yield 1.3% at the time of this writing.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 11
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Constellation Brands Maintains Comparable Earnings Per Share Outlook
Image Source: Constellation Brands. On July 1, beer, wine and spirits producer Constellation Brands reported disappointing first quarter fiscal 2026 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share missing the consensus forecast. Comparable net sales dropped 6%, while comparable organic net sales fell 4%. Comparable operating income tumbled 11%, while comparable net income attributable to the company fell 12%. Comparable adjusted earnings before interest and taxes fell 13%, while comparable diluted net income per share dropped 10%, to $3.22. Shares yield 2.4% at the time of this writing.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 4
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.