Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Johnson & Johnson Finetunes 2024 Bottom Line Guidance
Image: J&J’s shares have faced pressure since the beginning of 2023. Looking to all of 2024, J&J continues to expect adjusted operations sales growth in the range of 5.5%-6%, but it finetuned adjusted operational earnings per share to the range of $10.00-$10.10 from $10.60-$10.75 previously. The company’s improved performance was offset by the collective impact of its recent acquisitions of Shockwave Medical, Proteologix, and NM26 Bispecific Antibody. We’re not reading too much into the downward bottom-line guidance revision as J&J remains a free-cash-flow cow with a pristine AAA credit rating. Though J&J is not included in any newsletter portfolio, it’s hard not to like the company. Shares yield ~3.3% at the time of this writing.

PepsiCo Adjusts Organic Revenue Growth Guidance
Image: PepsiCo’s shares have been choppy since the beginning of 2022. We’re not reading too much into PepsiCo's modest downward organic revenue growth guidance revision for 2024 (approximated 4% versus at least 4%), as the firm's underlying profitability remains strong, with expectations for at least 8% core constant currency expansion in 2024. Total cash returns to shareholders is targeted at $8.2 billion for 2024, consisting of dividends of $7.2 billion and share repurchases of $1 billion. For the 24 weeks ended June 15, PepsiCo had negative free cash flow, while it retained a hefty net debt position on the balance sheet. Though PepsiCo is not a net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating powerhouse, we like the diversification benefits it provides in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

High Yield Dividend Income Investing Is Not as Easy as Chasing the Highest Yield
Image: EpicTop10.com. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

Accenture Facing Revenue Growth Pressures But Stock Is Worth a Look
Image: Accenture is facing revenue growth pressure, but the company’s financials remain resilient. We’re concerned about Accenture’s downward financial guidance revisions in March and pressure on demand growth for its IT and consulting services, but Accenture’s free cash flow generation remains robust, its balance sheet remains solid, and new bookings growth remains healthy with exposure to AI. Accenture pays a healthy dividend, and the firm continues to buy back stock. The company checks a lot of the boxes that we’d be looking for in a new idea, but we’d like to see evidence of revenue growth improvement before growing interested in adding the company to any newsletter portfolio. We remain on the sidelines for now.

ASML Reports First Quarter Results, Reiterates Guidance
Image: ASML Holding is one of our favorite semiconductor ideas. On April 17, ASML Holding reported decent first quarter 2024 results. First quarter net sales came in at €5.29 billion on a gross margin of 51.0%. Net income was €1.22 billion in the quarter. Net bookings in the first quarter of 2024 came in at €3.6 billion, down sequentially from the strong net bookings number delivered in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company continues to be shareholder friendly, paying dividends and buying back €400 million worth of stock during the first quarter. Though management expects 2024 total net sales to be similar to 2023, we like how ASML is positioned for the long run.

How Well Do Enterprise-Cash-Flow-Derived Fair Value Estimates Predict Future Stock Prices? -- And Thoughts on Behavioral Valuation
 Abstract: This paper attempts to solidify the efficacy of the predictive power of fair value estimates for stocks, as derived by the discounted enterprise cash flow (free cash flow to the firm) process. The piece emphasizes the difference between share prices and estimated fair (intrinsic) values and offers an overview of the discounted enterprise cash flow model, what causes fair value estimates to change, and what drivers may be most important within the context of the discounted enterprise cash flow model. The work examines the importance of both art and science in discounted enterprise cash flow valuation, and introduces the topic of behavioral valuation. An explanation of the methods used in the study include the creation of price-to-fair value comparisons and subsequent share-price performance of companies relative to their respective price-to-fair value ratios. The study in this work measures the predictive power of fair value estimates through eight subsequent time periods, or approximately 3 years. The subsets of data are broken into “undervalued” and “overvalued” stock groupings, and the predictive power of fair value estimates is then evaluated for each category.

The Dividend Cushion Beats the Aristocrats
A prolonged period of low interest rates has driven income investors to dividend growth investing as a way to achieve retirement goals. Traditional dividend growth analysis has rested on evaluating a company’s dividend payout ratio and its track record of historical consecutive annual dividend increases. A supplement to these approaches, the forward-looking, cash-flow-based Dividend Cushion ratio maps a company’s future expected free cash flows to its future expected cash dividends paid (after considering balance sheet health) and has shown to be a superior indicator of both dividend growth (risk) and total return relative to other dividend growth analytical processes. The results in this paper showcase the outperformance of a select number of high-yielding equities with strong Dividend Cushion ratios relative to both S&P 500 firms and companies with decades of consecutive annual dividend increases.

In the News: Inflation, Walgreens, SPACs/IPOs, and Marine Insured Losses
Inflation comes in-line with expectations regarding the critical PCE price index release for February. Walgreens remains in the doghouse following the firm's recent dividend cut. SPACs and IPOs are alive and well with Redditt hitting the market and Trump Media & Technology garnering interest. The tanker Dali collided into Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing loss of life and billions in estimated insured damages.

Understanding Stock Splits
Let’s dig into how stock splits impact valuation.