Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 30, 2022

WEC Energy Is a Solid Utility with a Nice Yield
Image Source: WEC Energy Group Inc – March 2022 IR Presentation. WEC Energy Group Inc is a holding company that owns electric and natural gas utilities in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois), a ~60% stake in American Transmission Company (its service area is in the Upper Midwest and overlaps with the operations of WEC Energy’s other utility assets), and the merchant power firm WEC Infrastructure. WEC Energy serves roughly 4.6 million customers across its service area. Some of its electric and natural gas utilities include Upper Michigan Energy Resources Corporation, Wisconsin Public Service Corporation, Minnesota Energy Resources Corporation, Peoples Energy LLC, The Peoples Gas Light and Coke Company, North Shore Gas Company, W.E. Power, Michigan Gas Utilities, and more. The bulk of WEC Energy’s asset base is represented by regulated utility operations which have incredibly stable and predictable cash flow profiles given the regulatory environment these companies operate in.

Mar 4, 2022

NextEra Energy’s Bright Outlook
Image Shown: NextEra Energy Inc, one of our favorite utilities, owns the largest regulated electric utility in Florida and has exposure to the state’s promising population and economic growth trajectory. The utility is shifting its power generation base away from coal and towards renewable energy, leaning on natural gas and nuclear power plants to make the transition feasible. Image Source: NextEra Energy Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We are big fans of NextEra Energy. The utility is a cash flow generating powerhouse with a bright adjusted EPS and dividend growth outlook, underpinned by its rapidly growing renewable energy division and exposure to Florida’s promising economic growth trajectory. Shares of NEE yield ~2.2% as of this writing.

Feb 28, 2022

Our Report on Stocks in the Utilities (Large) Industry
Image Source: doggo. Our report on stocks in the the Utilities (Large) industry can be found in this article. Report includes AEP, D, DUK, ED, EIK, ETR, EXC, FE, NEE, NGG, PCG, PPL, SO, XEL.

Jan 22, 2022

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Image: Erica Nicol. Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor may be doing much worse. Our timing to exit some very speculative ideas in the Exclusive publication has been impeccable. Beware of “best-fitted” backtest data regarding sequence of return risks. Research is to help you navigate the future, not the past. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul and grow more and more excited as our simulated newsletter portfolios continue to hold up very well. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Stick with the largest, strongest growth names. We still like large cap growth and big cap tech, though we are tactical overweight in the largest energy stocks (e.g. XOM, CVX, XLE). The latest short idea in the Exclusive publication has collapsed aggressively since highlight January 9, and we remain encouraged by the resilience of ideas in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Our options idea generation remains ongoing.

Dec 26, 2021

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.

Nov 24, 2021

Ameresco Has Soared, Boosts Guidance (Again)
Image Shown: Shares of Ameresco Inc have boomed higher since we first wrote about the company on V.com back in August 2020. We include Ameresco as an idea in our ESG Newsletter portfolio and see ample room for further capital appreciation upside. On November 1, Ameresco reported mixed third-quarter 2021 earnings that missed top-line consensus estimates but beat bottom-line numbers. The company also raised its full-year guidance (again) for 2021 which saw the firm increase the midpoint of its revenue, gross margin, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP EPS forecast. Ameresco also raised its full-year guidance for 2021 when it published its first quarter 2021 earnings report. We include Ameresco as an idea in our new ESG Newsletter portfolio and shares of AMRC have surged higher in recent months. On the website, we first wrote about Ameresco back in August 2020 and shares of AMRC have roughly tripled since then as of this writing.

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Oct 22, 2021

NextEra Energy’s Promising Earnings Growth Outlook Underpins Dividend Growth Trajectory
Image Source: NextEra Energy Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 20, the electric utility firm NextEra Energy reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The company reaffirmed its medium-term guidance in conjunction with its earnings report. We include shares of NEE in the ESG Newsletter portfolio and continue to be huge fans of the name. NextEra Energy’s capital appreciation and dividend growth upside potential is quite substantial. Our fair value estimate for shares of NEE stands at $102 per share with room for upside, as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $124 per share of NextEra Energy. Shares of NEE yield ~1.8% as of this writing.

Aug 24, 2021

We Continue to Be Big Fans of Ameresco
Image Source: Ameresco Inc – August 2021 IR Presentation. The economic and investment landscape is changing, and Ameresco is well-positioned to capitalize on the “green energy revolution” and growing interest in environmental, social, and governance (‘ESG’) investing standards. Ameresco’s focus on reducing operating costs for its clients while bolstering their green energy credentials and helping secure financing for the relevant projects underpins the value proposition of the company’s offerings. We first covered Ameresco in detail through an article published back in August 2020 and followed up on that work in a subsequent article published in November 2020 and provided a brief update on the firm in a piece published in January 2021. Shares of AMRC have more than doubled since we published our first article covering the name as of mid August 2021, and we think there is ample room for additional capital appreciation upside.

Aug 7, 2021

PPL Corp Updates Investors, Launches Share Buyback Program
Image Source: PPL Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On August 5, PPL Corp posted second-quarter 2021 earnings, and shares of PPL initially moved higher after the report. Though the gas and electric utility, which has a major regulated utility presence in Kentucky and Pennsylvania, missed both top- and bottom-line estimates, what investors were likely focused on most was the announcement that PPL Corp had approved a $3.0 billion share buyback program. The firm expects to spend $0.5 billion buying back its shares in 2021, and we view this as a solid use of PPL Corp’s capital given our fair value estimate sits at $45 per share of PPL, well above where the utility is trading at as of this writing.