Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 5, 2012

Dollar General Shines Through Challenging Times
The dollar store giant reported another strong quarter and could issue 25 million new shares in a secondary offering. We think the shares are fairly valued.

May 17, 2012

Walmart's Fiscal First-Quarter Results Show US Performance Improving
We liked Walmart's first-quarter results and don't think the firm's alleged bribery scandal at its Mexican division will materially impact the trajectory of its earnings outlook or dividend.

Apr 6, 2012

March Retail Sales Speak to Strength in the US Economy
Retail sales numbers issued by the ICSC reinforce our view that the US economy continues to grow and that the pace of expansion may even be accelerating.

Mar 23, 2012

Placing Green Mountain's Fair Value Under Review
We're putting the K-cup maker under review while we re-evaluate our forward-looking assumptions.

Feb 21, 2012

Walmart's Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Results and Outlook Disappoint; US Comparable Sales Performance Continues to Improve
Walmart posted fiscal fourth-quarter results and issued an outlook for fiscal 2013 that disappointed most investors. The largest retailer in the world continues to face tough competition from the likes of Amazon and dollar-store rivals. Though we remain on the sidelines with respect to Walmart's shares, we were encouraged by positive traffic trends in its domestic operations. 

Nov 15, 2011

Wal-Mart's Third-Quarter Earnings Decline, But US Comps Reverse; Low-End Consumers Increase Spending
Wal-Mart posted lower earnings for its fiscal third-quarter, but the results suggested a turnaround in its US operations thanks to improvement in low-end consumer spending.

Aug 17, 2011

Wal-Mart Raises Full-Year Guidance, Sam's Club Drives Results
Wal-Mart posted solid fiscal 2012 second-quarter results and raised its full-year guidance. We maintain the shares look fairly valued at these levels.

Consumer Staples Struggling with Higher Inflationary Costs, Group Hits 52-Week Lows
Image: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) has notched a new 52-week low, and investors should note that we don’t think consumer staples entities are immune to an environment of higher inflation, where their price increases may not be fully absorbed by the consumer. Due to the commoditization of many of the goods produced in the consumer staples space, we think the consumer may instead trade down to off-brands or white label (“store brand”) products than pay up for branded merchandise. From where we stand, bellwethers in the consumer staples sector can’t price successfully ahead of inflationary headwinds, and many are experiencing tremendous gross margin pressure. Not only this, but in many cases, we think branded staples are experiencing demand (volume) destruction as consumers balk at price increases that still fall short of offsetting the heightened cost environment. Many consumer staples equities have huge net debt positions and hefty dividend obligations, and while many of the types of products they produce consumers cannot do without, we think we might see the consumer staples group’s share prices come under continued pressure in this market environment and eventually fetch what we think would be a market multiple (roughly three turns of earnings lower, or ~19x earnings to ~16x earnings). Even if this may not happen, however, there still appears to be some tough sledding ahead on a fundamental basis given report commentary, and we’ll look to evaluate our newsletter portfolios and their exposure to the consumer staples arena in the coming weeks to months. What remains clear is that the outlook for many consumer staples entities is not pretty.