Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 2, 2022

ALERT: Replacing DLR with XLE in DGN and HYDN Portfolios; Public Storage Remains One of Our Favorite REITs
Image: Public Storage's one-time dividend issued this year has been fantastic for income investors. Image Source: Public Storage. The REIT space has had a difficult time this year. Public Storage, which reported results November 1, remains one of our favorite REITs, but we are making a change to remove DLR in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter (DGN) portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter (HYDN) portfolio and replace it with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The changes will be reflected upon the release of each newsletter's next edition. We continue to monitor the REIT space cautiously as interest rates rise, and as investors seek out alternatives for income, including I-Bonds yielding 6.89% and certificates of deposit approaching 4% yields.

Nov 1, 2022

Phillips 66: A Huge Winner in 2022
Image Source: Phillips 66. Shares of Phillips 66 have soared more than 40% this year, and we believe there is still upside on the basis of the high end of our fair value estimate range ($140 per share). The company’s equity has been mighty volatile this year, however, sporting a 52-week range of ~$67-$111, so investors should continue to expect large swings. Right now, things in the energy markets are favorable, and we see no reason to sour on PSX shares at the moment. The company yields ~3.7% at the time of this writing.

Oct 18, 2022

BIN Portfolio ALERT: Removing META, Adding to XLE, Adding MCD and PEP
Image Source: Valuentum. This market is not going to get easier, in our view, and we still believe that 2023 may mark the bottom before a return to the path toward new highs again. However, the erratic volatile trading the past few weeks has us thinking that this is not a market focused on fundamentals, and therefore, we have to hedge our bets accordingly. With “alpha” otherwise we would have missed carved out by "raising" cash in late August before the latest swoon, we’ll now approach newsletter portfolio protection with put option considerations going forward. The changes made today will be reflected in the November 15 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Oct 7, 2022

ICYMI: Things Have Changed Fast; Inflation and the Fed Have Damaged the Economy
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. Things have changed fast. Inflation has turned from a positive catalyst in 2021 into a negative catalyst in 2022, all the while the 10-year Treasury rate has soared. We’ve yet to see the impact from a massive negative wealth effect from alternatives, to stocks/bonds, to the U.S. housing market, and the European financial system could eventually need life support as the U.K. bails out pension funds and the sharks start swarming around large European financial institutions. The writing is on the wall for tough times to come in 2023, and things will get worse before they get better. Buckle up because we’re going to be in for a wild ride in the coming 6-12 months, and maybe longer.

Aug 31, 2022

Valuentum: Outlook for Europe, China Is Bleak
Video: Valuentum's Associate Director of Research and Co-Portfolio Manager of the simulated newsletter portfolios, Callum Turcan, shares his thoughts about the global economy. Europe is facing considerable pressure from energy prices, while China may face a mortgage meltdown. Join Valuentum for this brief 6 minute video to get up to speed on the goings-on of the global economy and what troubles may be lurking ahead.

Aug 24, 2022

ICYMI (Aug 19) -- ALERT -- PYPL, META, GOOG, V -- Making Some Big Changes in the Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
Image Shown: We are very happy with the overall "performance" of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, which is carving out 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022 on a price-only basis, as shown in the table above. However, we're making some big changes to the simulated newsletter portfolio today on some of our favorite names. Our best ideas continue to be in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, the simulated ESG Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, as well as with our additional options commentary. We're making some big moves in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio today! At the moment, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is carving out about 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022, on a price-only basis relative to the the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF. Overall, after some huge years, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is down a modest ~8.6% in 2022, by our estimates. Pretty good, all things considered. That said, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has bounced right off its 200-day moving average (technical resistance), and we're not going to sit by while the risks to the market this year increase. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul, of course, but we think incremental alpha may be generated by removing/trimming/adding to some of our winners in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at this time. We're changing our mind on a couple things, too, as any good investor does. [This note was emailed to members August 19.]

Aug 8, 2022

Exxon Mobil Surging Higher with Room for Upside
Image Shown: Exxon Mobil Corporation put up stellar results when reporting its second quarter earnings in late July 2022. Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – Second Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. Exxon Mobil Corp posted second quarter 2022 earnings that flew past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The tailwind provided by elevated raw energy resources prices, rising oil & gas production volumes, ongoing cost structure improvement initiatives, and strong “crack spreads” (refining margins) more than offset headwinds arising from its decision to exit Russia in March 2022 and foreign currency headwinds due to a strong U.S. dollar. Exxon Mobil is one of our favorite energy ideas, and we include shares of XOM in several of the newsletter portfolios as it offers investors a nice combination of dividend growth and capital appreciation upside potential. Shares of XOM yield ~3.6% as of this writing, and our fair value estimate sits at $105 per share of Exxon Mobil.

Jul 7, 2022

2022 Oil & Gas Market Update: “The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Remains Quite Bullish”
In our view, the outlook for crude oil prices remains quite bullish which in turn should enable Chevron and Exxon Mobil, two of our favorite newsletter portfolio ideas, to churn out “gobs” of free cash flow over the coming quarters. Additionally, both Chevron and Exxon Mobil have substantial exposure to natural gas prices, in part through their enormous LNG export facilities in Australia, which should further support their cash flow generating abilities. We will caution here that a key downside risk the global energy complex faces is potential demand destruction as consumers adjust their lifestyles accordingly to reduce their energy and fuel bills. With that in mind, we have yet to see energy demand falter in a meaningful way, though we are keeping a close eye on the state of the global economy.

Jun 28, 2022

High Yield: Diversified Refiner Phillips 66 A Good Replacement for Broad Consumer Staples Exposure
Image Source: Phillips 66 Investor Update May 2022. Phillips 66 is a top-notch operator in the downstream space with impressive refining and petrochemical assets supported by various midstream operations. Its investment-grade credit rating (A3/BBB+), with stable outlooks, better enables Phillips 66 to tap capital markets at attractive rates, something that we especially like when considering new ideas in the high yield dividend space. A growing global middle class and a growing global population supports Phillip 66's longer term outlook for refined product demand. We like the company as a high yield dividend consideration.

Jun 18, 2022

The Stock Market Is Nearing Technical Support Levels
Image: This year has been a difficult one for equity investors, but the selling pressure that has been common in the markets may start to slow as broader indices such as the S&P 500 begin to approach technical support levels. On the S&P 500, we think there is substantial technical support in the 3,200-3,500 range, which to us suggests that further near-term downside may be limited. The S&P 500 closed at 3,674.84 on Friday, June 17, and we think fair value is much higher. What might be a fair value for the S&P 500 today? Well, throwing the 10-year S&P 500 average multiple of 16.9x on 2023 expected earnings numbers of 251.76 gets to a 4,255 mark on the S&P 500, which is above the last closing level of 3,674.84 for the index. Benchmark Treasury rates remain low relative to history, and balance sheets of many S&P 500 companies are overflowing with net cash, supporting such a multiple, too. All told, investors might expect the stock market to hit technical support levels on the S&P 500 of 3,200-3,500 in the near term, but from where we stand, stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration over the long haul.