Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 11, 2023

Don't Let "Them" Spin the Narrative
Here’s the bottom line: The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has failed both during the COVID-19 crisis as well as during 2022, when diversification was needed most. The strongest performers during 2022 were among the weakest performers in the years prior, and their 5-year returns still pale in comparison to those of big cap tech and large cap growth during the past five years. Small cap value, of which factor investing has been built on top of, continues to trail most other stylistic areas during the past five years. We’re staying the course. Though we expect continued tough sledding during the first quarter of 2023, we think the year will offer an incredible opportunity for investors to dollar cost average into what could be yet another strong decade of returns for stocks!

Dec 21, 2022

Our Reports on the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Our stock reports on the diversified REIT sector can be found in this article. Reports include DLR, FRT, O, REG, SPG, PEAK, OHI, VTR, WELL, PSA, EQIX, CUBE, EXR, IRM.

Dec 12, 2022

CubeSmart Raises Dividend 14% But We’re Monitoring High Net Debt Load and Deteriorating Occupancy Rates
Image Source: CubeSmart. CubeSmart announced a 14% increase in its dividend payout December 7. The REIT upped its guidance for earnings per share and adjusted FFO when it reported its third-quarter results last October but deteriorating occupancy rates and the impact of rising interest rates on the firm’s massive net debt position have us on alert. We continue to monitor these dynamics closely in light of the REIT’s weak share-price performance during 2022.

Dec 7, 2022

REITs May Continue to Face Pressure
Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. Equity and mortgage REITs have been under considerable pressure during 2022. Institutional investors seem to be fleeing the sector, but retail investor interest still seems unusually high. We think this might be a tell-tale sign that retail investors could end up getting burned, if they haven’t been already by the terrible performance across the sector so far in 2022. Withdrawals on non-publicly traded REITs are soaring, and SL Green’s dividend cut may be the first of many in the sector to come. We only include a select few REITs across our simulated newsletter portfolios.

Nov 4, 2022

Life Storage Operates Within An Attractive Slice of the REIT Sector
Image Source: Life Storage. Life Storage operates in one of the most attractive areas of the REIT sector, the self-storage arena. The company has raised its dividend considerably during the past five years, and its 35-year history in the self-storage business coupled with its investment-grade credit ratings speak to sustainability. We like its diversified, coast-to-coast presence in the U.S. with roughly 60% of its owned stores positioned in the fast-growing Sun Belt states. Since 2010, Life Storage has raised its dividend at a 10.4% compound annual growth rate, and we expect further hikes to come. Shares yield ~4.2% at this time.

Nov 2, 2022

ALERT: Replacing DLR with XLE in DGN and HYDN Portfolios; Public Storage Remains One of Our Favorite REITs
Image: Public Storage's one-time dividend issued this year has been fantastic for income investors. Image Source: Public Storage. The REIT space has had a difficult time this year. Public Storage, which reported results November 1, remains one of our favorite REITs, but we are making a change to remove DLR in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter (DGN) portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter (HYDN) portfolio and replace it with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The changes will be reflected upon the release of each newsletter's next edition. We continue to monitor the REIT space cautiously as interest rates rise, and as investors seek out alternatives for income, including I-Bonds yielding 6.89% and certificates of deposit approaching 4% yields.

Oct 21, 2022

Get Excited: Dividend Growth Investors Rejoice! – More “Outperformance”
Image: Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio continues to “outperform” relative to almost any dividend-paying benchmark this year! Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is not a real money portfolio. As of the last tally through October 19, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is beating the S&P 500 Dividend ETF SPDR (SDY) by roughly ~3.2 percentage points so far in 2022 (-8.4% versus -11.6%), all the while we’ve seen some awesome dividend growth across the board, with Microsoft (MSFT), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Honeywell (HON), and Realty Income (O) recently pushing through some nice dividend increases. What’s ~3.2 percentage points on a million-dollar portfolio? ~$32,000 in capital one doesn’t have to make up when the market’s coming roaring back in the coming years – and that’s relative to a dividend growth benchmark that is “outperforming” the SPY in a big way in 2022.

Oct 19, 2022

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Continues to Deliver!
Image: The year-to-date simulated performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which continues to hold up well during 2022, while offering an attractive forward estimated dividend yield. Data retrieved interim session October 19.Valuentum's newsletter product suite continues to deliver in good times and bad. For those of you interested in high dividend paying stocks, we offer a High Yield Dividend Newsletter and a simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which has been holding up well amid the weakness across both the stock and bond markets this year. Based on our calculations, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio now boasts an estimated forward dividend yield of ~5.44% and is down only approximately 10% on a price-only basis so far this year. Even though this year has been tough, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio's track record speaks to fantastic stock selection and portfolio construction! But why: Well, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), which many use to approximate the performance of REITs, is down ~32.6% so far this year, while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) is down ~39.4%. The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down ~23.3% year-to-date. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio has even outpaced bonds, as measured by the AGG, which is down ~16.8% this year, data according to Seeking Alpha. Perhaps the best benchmark for the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, however, is the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), and this one is down ~13.6% this year, while only sporting a forward estimated dividend yield of ~4.3%, both stats according to Seeking Alpha. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio simply is delivering for members!

Oct 12, 2022

Serious Question: What Are You Looking At?
Image: Stocks with the largest 52-week losses, according to YahooFinance. We've handled the worst performers of 2022 quite handily, and the simulated newsletter portfolios are showcasing the importance of our methodology and processes. We expect things to get worse in the economy before they get better, but we maintain our view that there may be nothing better out there than a subscription to Valuentum to navigate these tumultuous times.

Aug 30, 2022

CubeSmart Is a Tremendous High Yielding Idea
Image Shown: CubeSmart is one of our favorite high yielding ideas. Image Source: CubeSmart – June 2022 IR Presentation. There is a lot to like about CubeSmart as the self-storage REIT has been doing great of late. CubeSmart possesses ample pricing power, its occupancy rates have been trending in the right direction of late, and the REIT is a stellar free cash flow generator. In our view, CubeSmart should be able to tap capital markets at attractive rates to meet its funding needs going forward. We appreciate CubeSmart’s latest guidance boost and continue to like shares of CUBE as an idea in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. We are huge fans of self-storage REITs due to their ability to generate not just significant free cash flows, but significant excess free cash flows after covering their total payout obligations.