Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 23, 2020

US Fiscal Stimulus Update
Image Source: frankieleon. The US Congress is debating and working on a massive multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus package to mitigate the negative impact the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is having on the domestic economy and to provide for additional healthcare funds to cash-strapped entities to combat the virus.

Mar 20, 2020

Op-Ed: Bail Out Boeing, No Other Publicly Traded Companies
Image: Boeing B-17E Fortress 41-2599 "Tugboat Annie"; took part in the Battle of Midway in Jun '42; later ditched at sea on 16 Jan 43. Source.Dear Uncle Sam: Please stop bailing out the competition of small business. We need a changing of the guard. Let capitalism work.

Mar 19, 2020

Extreme Volatility and Crisis Economics
Image: The Dow Jones has now registered 8 consecutive trading days with a 4% move in either direction, from March 9 through March 18. This is the most volatile time in history, a streak that is longer than the 5 consecutive days registered in November 1929 (Great Depression), 4 consecutive days in 1987 (Crash of 1987), and 4 consecutive days in 2008 (Great Financial Crisis). The worst of the declines may still be ahead of us. The S&P 500 still is trading within our fair value estimate range of 2,350-2,750, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see panic/forced selling all the way down to 2,000 on the S&P. Expect more volatility, and please stay safe out there as the world declares all out war on COVID-19. Our best ideas remain in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and Exclusive publication.

Mar 18, 2020

Banking Entities: The Technicals Tell the Story
Image: The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF has experienced a tremendous amount of pain in recent weeks.  What is clear is that temporarily shutting down large parts of U.S. economy is absolutely unprecedented, and there will be substantial knock-on effects and difficulties in getting things restarted. This is most especially true if the coronavirus re-emerges following the periods of social distancing around the world, or when the weather turns colder again in the fall, and humanity could be facing a different strand of the coronavirus. Don’t forget that all bank institutions use a lot of financial leverage by their very nature, and the Fed and Treasury can never truly stop a run-on-the-bank dynamic (i.e. that which happened to WaMu in 2008). We think BOK Financial is in particular trouble given its energy loan exposure. Others to avoid include Cullen/Frost Bankers, Cadence Bancorp, and CIT Group. The credit card entities, Capital One and Synchrony Financial may be worth avoiding. We’d stay far away from the regional banks given their exposure to small business pain amid COVID-19. We don’t think the fiscal stimulus on the table does much to help small businesses. Deutsche Bank may be the first of the big European banks to topple, and this weakness could eventually spread to the U.S. banks given counterparty risk. Most foreign banks, including Santander, Credit Suisse, UBS, ING, and BBVA remain exposed to crisis scenarios. We’re also witnessing some very troubling developments with banking preferred shares, with the bank-preferred-heavy ETF, Global X SuperIncome Preferred ETF dropping ~15% during the trading session March 18. The preferreds of HSBC and Ally Financial are top weightings in that ETF. Banking technicals are raising some major red flags across the board, and given actions by the Fed and Treasury, this crisis has all the makings of being worse than the Great Financial Crisis. In any financial crisis perhaps excepting a depression, there can come a time to invest new money in bank stocks. Though it seems likely we have not yet reached the bottom in the markets yet, the highest-ground bank franchises in the US are JPMorgan and Bank of America, in our view. While sharp declines in their equity values may be expected (no one truly knows how deep the coming flood will be), they’re likely to make it to the other side with most of their equity capital firmly intact. With all that said, however, one doesn’t have to hold banking equities. It may be time to phone Mr. Buffett before things really start to unfold.

May 17, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 17
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Apr 27, 2018

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 27
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

May 1, 2017

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending Apr 28
Let's take a look at companies raising/lowering their dividends this week.