Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 24, 2022

Chip Stocks -- Geopolitical Uncertainty Heightens in China; ASML, QCOM Still Strong Long-Term Considerations, But Expect Near-Term Fundamental Weakness
Image Source: The U.S. Department of Commerce. The global economic environment continues to reel from heightened inflation, which is pressuring consumer discretionary spending, but geopolitical uncertainty remains at a fever pitch. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unsettled investors, but the back-and-forth between the U.S. and China has chipmakers in the crosshairs. On October 7, 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report aimed to restrict China’s ability to attain advanced computer chip technology. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimates across the chip space, but many of their refreshed fair value estimates will remain within their existing fair value estimate ranges. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimates across the chip space, but many of their refreshed fair value estimates will remain within their existing fair value estimate ranges. Qualcomm will report fourth-quarter results November 2, 2022, and we’ll have more to say after the report. We recently dove into ASML’s quarterly report for the period ending October 3, which wasn’t too bad. Of note, ASML indicated that the export restrictions won’t be as punitive for them as many believe given its headquarters in the Netherlands. Though our newsletter portfolio "exposure" to the chip space is small, we'll be watching fundamental performance across the group closely.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."

May 27, 2022

Broadcom Buying VMware as “Empire Building” Streak Continues
Image Shown: Broadcom Inc is acquiring VMware Inc and the deal will significantly increase its enterprise software business. Image Source: Broadcom Inc and VMware Inc - May 2022 IR Presentation. Continuing with its acquisitive streak, the semiconductor and enterprise software giant Broadcom Inc announced on May 26 that it would acquire hybrid cloud services provider VMware Inc through a cash-and-stock deal that values VMware at ~$61 billion. Additionally, Broadcom will assume ~$8 billion in net debt from VMware. This follows in the footsteps of Broadcom’s $18.9 billion deal to acquire CA Technologies in 2018 and its $10.7 billion deal to acquire the enterprise security business of then-Symantec, now NortonLifeLock Inc, in 2019. Under the leadership of Hock Tan, Broadcom’s CEO since 2006, the company has built itself into a tech powerhouse through a series of acquisitions. In 2018, Broadcom formally ended its attempt to acquire Qualcomm Inc in the face of antitrust concerns and adjusted its strategy accordingly. By growing its enterprise software business, namely through acquisitions, Broadcom was largely able to avoid antitrust concerns. However, it remains to be seen if regulators will give their blessing to this pending acquisition.