Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 26, 2020

Covering One of Newmont’s Lowest Cost Gold Mining Operations
Image Source: Newmont Corporation – May 2020 IR Presentation. We covered Newmont’s first quarter 2020 earnings back in early-May and continue to like the gold miner in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Newmont’s Dividend Cushion ratio stands at 2.2 which provides for a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating and we like the firm’s payout growth trajectory which earns the firm a “GOOD” Dividend Growth rating as well. Please note our Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating incorporates our expectations that Newmont will push through modest dividend increases over the coming years.

Jun 4, 2020

BHP Benefiting from an Industrial Rebound in China
Image Source: BHP Group – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report. In recent months, iron ore futures prices have surged higher due to an ongoing recovery in China’s industrial sector and supply concerns in Brazil, which has culminated into the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s September 2020 iron ore deliveries hitting a record high since the futures contract was first launched in 2013. Pivoting to copper, three-month copper futures prices based on trading activity on the London Metals Exchange have also perked up on the back of an apparent recovery in Chinese economic activity. Rising metals prices bodes well for major and minor miners around the globe, including BHP Group.

May 21, 2020

Southern Copper’s Payout Is Not That Healthy
Image Shown: An overview of Southern Copper’s core operations in Mexico and Peru. Image Source: Southern Copper Corporation – May 2019 IR Presentation. Copper (symbol Cu, atomic number 29) is an essential building block of modern civilization as it is used as a conductor for heat and electricity. Electrical components, utility-scale electrical transmission systems, residential and commercial heating appliances, electric vehicles, and much more all rely on copper products (electromagnets, heat exchangers, heat sinks, integrated circuits, printed circuits, copper wiring, and copper fittings are all examples of products that contain copper). The largest consumer of copper is China, accounting for roughly half of global demand making the Middle Kingdom an essential part of the copper supply chain. On the other end of the supply chain, it’s companies like Southern Copper Corp that develop and operate the copper mines in major producing regions that enable global supply to meet demand. Copper plays an essential role in the transportation, industrial, consumer goods, utilities, and construction industries/sectors. The pace of construction activity in China has an outsize impact on global copper prices.

May 18, 2020

Earnings Roundup for Week Ended May 17
Image Shown: We cover several earnings reports in this article across several sectors and industries to provide an overview of how corporates performed during the early stages of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Reducing expenses, generating efficiency gains, and ultimately improving the cost structure of corporates appears to be a key theme during the first-quarter 2020 earnings cycle. Management teams across the board are hunkering down and preparing for the pain to continue as global economic activity is expected to grind to a halt in the second quarter of 2020, before recovering somewhat due in part to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that were launched to offset the negative impact COVID-19 is having on economic activity.

May 7, 2020

Gold Miner Newmont Continues to Shine
Image Source: Newmont Corporation – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. On May 5, the gold miner Newmont Corp reported first quarter 2020 earnings that missed both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates which prompted shares to sell off modestly during the normal trading session that day, though shares of NEM have been on an epic bull run since the start of 2020. We continue to like Newmont as an idea in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio with shares of NEM up ~48% as of this writing since joining the portfolio on January 13, 2020, before taking dividend considerations into account, while the S&P 500 is down ~13% during this period before taking dividend considerations into account. At Newmont’s new annualized dividend payout of $1.00 per share, shares of NEM yield ~1.6% as of this writing.

Feb 20, 2020

Newmont Posts a Great Earnings Report
Image Shown: A look at Newmont Corporation’s asset base, which is heavily centered on the Americas and Australia, with some exposure to West Africa as well. Image Source: Newmont – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2019 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 20, gold miner Newmont Corp reported a fourth quarter and full-year earnings report for 2019 that pleasantly surprised, with shares of NEM up sharply after the report during the trading session that Thursday. Back on January 13, we added a modest weighting of NEM shares to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as part of our pivot to more defensive names given rising exogenous headwinds to the global economy. While Newmont’s top-line marginally missed consensus expectations, its bottom-line handedly beat consensus expectations which is partially why investors were excited about the report. The other big reason shares of NEM march higher is likely due to Newmont noting its outlook had improved materially since closing on its Goldcorp acquisition and selling off some of its assets, as part of the normal portfolio optimization process one would expect after a major acquisition.

Feb 18, 2020

Newmont Updates Investors Ahead of Earnings
Image Source: Newmont Corporation – January 2020 IR Presentation. Back on January 13, we added Newmont Corp to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio with a modest weighting as part of our shift towards more defensive names in light of rising exogenous headwinds to global economic activity. Some important considerations include Newmont increasing its quarterly payout to $0.25 per share from $0.14 per share, which is expected to be declared at the level in April 2020 (the fourth quarter of 2019 dividend, as management puts it, will be paid out in March 2020 at $0.14 per share). As of this writing, Newmont would yield ~2.2% at the new annualized dividend rate. We like Newmont’s dividend coverage and its Dividend Cushion ratio sits at a solid 2.2x, keeping in mind that ratio is based on its expected future dividend obligations (we have modeled in the large announced payout increase and single-digit annual payout increases on a per share basis going forward).

Jan 10, 2020

Newmont’s Outlook is Bright Due to More Than Just Gold Prices Rallying
Image Source: Newmont – Third Quarter 2019 Earnings IR Presentation. Newmont Corp announced a huge boost to its dividend on January 6, with its quarterly payout growing by 79% to $0.25 per share from $0.14 previously. As of this writing, that’s good for a forward-looking yield of ~2.4%. Additionally, the company reiterated its commitment to buying back its stock now that the merger between Newmont and Goldcorp is firmly in the rear view mirror (Newmont Corporation used to be known as Newmont Goldcorp Corporation, a name that was shortened this year). We continue to like the name as one of the top gold mining plays.

Jun 5, 2019

Gold Is But a Shiny Yellow Metal
Image shown: The performance of an ETF tracking the price of gold bullion, less the expenses to run the ETF, since 2011. "What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As 'bandwagon' investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while." -- Warren Buffett (2011 annual letter to shareholders)

Apr 9, 2019

US Steel Helped By Steel Import Tariffs
Image Source: US Steel. The imposition of additional tariffs on US steel imports under President Trump’s administration, namely the 25% tariff slapped on steel imports from the EU, Mexico and Canada, has greatly behooved US Steel’s financial performance.