Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 6, 2024

In the News: Apple, Nvidia, ANSYS
The first week of trading in the new year wasn't very welcome, but we think it is far too early to draw any conclusions about how the rest of the year will be. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ faced selling pressure in the first week due in part to investors waiting until the new year to book the huge gains garnered during 2023. The market continues to digest critical employment data, as it watches movements in the 10-year Treasury closely, a key benchmark rate for asset pricing that now stands just north of 4%. Many bulls are saying 2024 may be a difficult year after the worst start in the S&P 500 for a new year since 2008, but we remain bullish on our positioning in the newsletter portfolios.

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Dec 14, 2023

Brief Note: Just How Good Has Our Stock Selection Been?
Has anyone really done better than this? We hope you have benefited greatly!

Nov 29, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report refreshes on the website.

Nov 27, 2023

How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index?
Image: We highlighted Exxon Mobil to start 2022, and the stock was one of the best performers in the S&P 500 last year. Exxon Mobil became a “Valuentum” stock last year, with shares being undervalued, exhibiting a strong technical breakout, and sporting an attractive dividend yield to boot. The stock became a huge winner. Note: Exxon is no longer included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. The image is an excerpt from an email sent to members January 5, 2022.We answer one of the most frequently asked questions about the Valuentum Buying Index.

Nov 27, 2023

Nvidia’s Shares Could Run Higher Even More!
Image: Nvidia has been a market darling, and the firm's equity looks to have further upside potential on the basis of our valuation. On November 21, market darling Nvidia Corp. reported excellent fiscal third quarter results for the period ending October 29 that showcased the power behind the revolution in artificial intelligence. The company’s revenue hit a record, advancing more than three-fold on a year over year basis thanks to strength in its Data Center business. Its non-GAAP earnings were up six-fold from the year-ago period, and the firm continues to haul in tremendous free cash flow. We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Nvidia to $606 per share, and we think the company’s shares could continue to run higher.

Nov 27, 2023

Can Things Really Stay This Good?
"Large cap growth is booming. Small cap value is trailing. Dividend payers are stagnating. The markets are making a lot of sense again. But I do have my worries. When things are going this well, some market choppiness is probably in the cards. The S&P 500 is now bumping up against the high end of its downtrend, so the remainder of this year will likely see some increased volatility. On the back of Nvidia’s momentum and the great promise of artificial intelligence, however, I wonder if the first half of 2024 will be awesome followed by a very difficult back half of 2024 as some of my concerns finally catch up to the markets. But that just might be at the time the Fed starts cutting rates." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Nov 2, 2023

AMD Continues to Enhance Artificial Intelligence Capabilities
On October 31, Advanced Micro Devices reported solid third-quarter results with revenue advancing 4% on a year-over-year basis and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in slightly better than expectations, with net income up more than four-fold, to $299 million. Management expressed excitement about demand for its Ryzen 7000 series PC processors and noted that its data center business is progressing well thanks to its 4th Gen EPYC CPU portfolio and Instinct MI300 accelerator shipments across various markets, including artificial intelligence [AI].

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.