Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 10, 2024

How Well Do Enterprise-Cash-Flow-Derived Fair Value Estimates Predict Future Stock Prices? -- And Thoughts on Behavioral Valuation
 Abstract: This paper attempts to solidify the efficacy of the predictive power of fair value estimates for stocks, as derived by the discounted enterprise cash flow (free cash flow to the firm) process. The piece emphasizes the difference between share prices and estimated fair (intrinsic) values and offers an overview of the discounted enterprise cash flow model, what causes fair value estimates to change, and what drivers may be most important within the context of the discounted enterprise cash flow model. The work examines the importance of both art and science in discounted enterprise cash flow valuation, and introduces the topic of behavioral valuation. An explanation of the methods used in the study include the creation of price-to-fair value comparisons and subsequent share-price performance of companies relative to their respective price-to-fair value ratios. The study in this work measures the predictive power of fair value estimates through eight subsequent time periods, or approximately 3 years. The subsets of data are broken into “undervalued” and “overvalued” stock groupings, and the predictive power of fair value estimates is then evaluated for each category.

Apr 8, 2024

What Is Gold Really Worth?
Image: Gold prices have surged since 2020, and they recently hit an all-time high. What is the yellow metal really worth? Let's discuss the greater fool characteristics of the price of gold.

Apr 5, 2024

The Dividend Cushion Beats the Aristocrats
A prolonged period of low interest rates has driven income investors to dividend growth investing as a way to achieve retirement goals. Traditional dividend growth analysis has rested on evaluating a company’s dividend payout ratio and its track record of historical consecutive annual dividend increases. A supplement to these approaches, the forward-looking, cash-flow-based Dividend Cushion ratio maps a company’s future expected free cash flows to its future expected cash dividends paid (after considering balance sheet health) and has shown to be a superior indicator of both dividend growth (risk) and total return relative to other dividend growth analytical processes. The results in this paper showcase the outperformance of a select number of high-yielding equities with strong Dividend Cushion ratios relative to both S&P 500 firms and companies with decades of consecutive annual dividend increases.

Mar 29, 2024

In the News: Inflation, Walgreens, SPACs/IPOs, and Marine Insured Losses
Inflation comes in-line with expectations regarding the critical PCE price index release for February. Walgreens remains in the doghouse following the firm's recent dividend cut. SPACs and IPOs are alive and well with Redditt hitting the market and Trump Media & Technology garnering interest. The tanker Dali collided into Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing loss of life and billions in estimated insured damages.

Mar 22, 2024

Understanding Stock Splits
Let’s dig into how stock splits impact valuation.

Mar 11, 2024

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services
We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio seeks to find stocks that have good value and good momentum characteristics and typically targets capital appreciation potential over a longer-term horizon. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio seeks to find underpriced dividend growth gems that generate strong levels of free cash flow and have pristine, fortress balance sheets, translating into excellent Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio seeks to find some of the highest-yielding stocks supported by strong credit profiles and solid business models, but not always robust traditional free cash flow. Ideas in this newsletter offer higher-yielding opportunities, but also much higher capital and income risk. We also offer a full suite of products to financial advisers (gold level) that range from a more extensive Excel-based screening tool (the DataScreener) to 'Ideas' and 'Dividend' publications that are released on a quarterly basis. Our research product includes hundreds of stock reports, fair values, fair value ranges, associated commentary, as well as dividend reports with Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratios and expected dividend growth rates. Silver and gold-level members can add the Valuentum Exclusive or additional options commentary/ideas to their plans. The Exclusive publication is a part of the institutional (platinum) level membership.

Feb 27, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway Caps Off Strong Year of Operating Earnings Growth
Image: Berkshire’s operating earnings experienced a strong advance during 2023 from last year’s levels. On February 24, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong fourth-quarter results that capped off a year where operating earnings advanced 21% on a year-over-year basis. Warren Buffett tipped his hat to his long-time partner Charlie Munger, who passed away in November of last year, crediting him as the architect of Berkshire and himself merely in charge of the “construction crew.” There weren’t many surprises in the annual report, and Buffett made several references to areas that he has long talked about in the past, including pointing investors to operating earnings, as opposed to net income, which includes unrealized capital gains that can make reported results seem more volatile. All things considered, we liked Berkshire’s update, and we continue to like the firm as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 20, 2024

Dividend Growth Idea Home Depot Hikes Payout Nearly 8%!
Image: Home Depot is working through some soft sales trends following robust home improvement spending during the pandemic, but the company’s free cash flow generation remains top notch. On February 20, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Home Depot reported mixed fourth quarter results that showed revenue pressure in the period, but the company still beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. We’re huge fans of Home Depot’s resilience through the ups and downs of the real estate market, and the company’s pace of dividend growth remains solid. Our fair value estimate of Home Depot stands at $369 per share, modestly higher than where it is trading, and the company has a strong 1.4x Dividend Cushion ratio, which speaks to future dividend expansion.

Feb 13, 2024

Waste Management’s Pricing Power Is Fantastic, Sustainability Initiatives Are Noble
Image Source: TheInvertedFan. There are few industry economics that we like better than the waste management industry, and Waste Management is the leader in this oligopolistic environment. Management plans to continue buying back stock, and the firm intends to raise its dividend by $0.20 per share, to $3.00 on an annual basis, making it 21 consecutive years that it has raised its payout. Though free cash flow will face pressure from its sustainability initiatives, the company’s free cash flow generation remains robust. At a $3 per-share annualized dividend, shares of Waste Management yield ~1.6% on a forward-looking basis. Though we don’t include Waste Management in the newsletter portfolios (we include peer Republic Services in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio), the company is one of our favorites for consideration.

Jan 28, 2024

What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?
Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow learning tool for individual investors. So you noticed a fair value estimate changed, and you weren’t sure why? This article is for you.