Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 20, 2017

Dividends: Costco and Walmart
Image Source: Fiscal Year 2017 Annual Report. The retail sector is undergoing a revolutionary change to its traditional business model of delivering value to customers in a brick-and-mortar format with a tepid nod towards an e-commerce platform. There will inevitably be winners and losers from such a massive paradigm shift to online, but we think Costco and Walmart will be able to adapt effectively, while delivering a tidy dividend to boot. We do not believe Amazon will rule the world.

Dec 19, 2017

Video: Quants! You're NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson's Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Dec 1, 2017

Shopping for Income Within Retail in a Digital World
Image Source: Mike Mozart. The 2017 holiday shopping season has shown that e-commerce has never been stronger and it will only continue to grow. But there is still potential for income generation among more traditional retailers. Investors must be tremendously discerning in the retail area, however, as margin, and ultimately free cash flow, pressures remain prevalent. We like Walmart, Target, Costco as income ideas in the broader retail space, but TJX Companies and Best Buy may be worth a look, too. We're avoiding the department stores and teen retail like the plague, regardless of their Dividend Cushion ratios.

Nov 26, 2017

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform
Image Source: DonkeyHotey. Donald Trump and team are working hard to “Make America Great Again,” and lowering tax rates on corporations is a key initiative. Nobody knows for sure whether such efforts will come to fruition, but knowing how to use our research and understanding the fair value estimate range puts you ahead of the crowd, if it hasn’t already.

Nov 19, 2017

Nelson on Bogle, Part I
Image shown: An example illustrating how the dividend is a component of capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. Such a situation applies to both regular and special dividends. "The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the "I'll get it next time" mentality that was present leading to the crash of '29, individual investors have "evolved" to the point that now the idea is if you can't beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that didn't show his/her work. When the test comes around, and the problem is a bit different, the copier is up a creek." -- The Valuentum Team

Nov 15, 2017

Buffalo Wild Wings Should Go Private and Hasbro Should Buy Mattel…But at the Right Price
Image Source: Hasbro. There is a lot happening across the M&A landscape as of late. Buffalo Wild Wings has reportedly received a go-private offer, while speculation is swirling that Hasbro is looking to gobble up Mattel. We like the prospects of both scenarios. However, price will always matter. Buffalo Wild Wings should hold out for the very best offer, while Hasbro should be very careful not to overpay for assets that may be past their prime.

Sep 30, 2017

Amazon Casts a Large Shadow Over the Pharmacy Industry
Image Source:  Mike Mozart. It is our belief the food retailing industry is in the midst of widespread disruption with Amazon’s attempt to break into the supermarket game with its audacious purchase of Whole Foods. The Whole Foods acquisition is not likely to be an isolated one-off event; instead, it may be a harbinger of Amazon’s ambition to break into new markets, thus expanding its overall percentage of retail sales. We update our views on Amazon and how the company may eventually impact newsletter portfolio holding CVS Health.

Sep 12, 2017

Target, Kroger Launch Counterattack on Amazon-Whole Foods; Industry Earnings to Shrink
Image Source: Valuentum. The pricing war has begun, but it may take years before we see the final effects. Only the strongest may come out ahead, and only those already focusing on giving customers the very best value proposition at the lowest prices may retain share.

Aug 18, 2017

CVS Health Still Stuck in Neutral
Image Source: CVS Health. CVS Health continues to perform as expected in the current lower reimbursement environment. We remain enthused with the copious amount of free cash flow that the enterprise produces, which has allowed management to continue its shareholder-friendly ways. We remain vigilant for signs of a key inflection point, however, and a catalyst may exist in the results of the current PBM selling season.

Aug 7, 2017

Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva
Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance.