Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 21, 2021

Johnson & Johnson Boosts Guidance Again, Posts Great Earnings Update
Image Shown: Johnson & Johnson reported strong performance across its three core business operating segments in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 19, Johnson & Johnson reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended around the end of September 2021) that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The healthcare giant also raised its full-year guidance (again) for fiscal 2021 as its ‘Pharmaceutical’ segment is growing at a robust pace, its ‘Medical Device’ segment is steadily recovering from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and its ‘Consumer Health’ segment is holding up well. We continue to like Johnson & Johnson as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 18, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance (Again)
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc moved higher in the wake of its latest earnings report and guidance boost. On October 14, the health insurance and health care services provider giant UnitedHealth Group reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance (again) for 2021 in conjunction with its latest earnings report, boosting its EPS forecast to $17.70-$17.95 and its non-GAAP adjusted EPS forecast to $18.65-$18.90. Shares of UNH are included as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as we are enormous fans of its fortress-like balance sheet and ability to generate free cash flows in almost any operating environment. As of this writing, shares of UNH yield ~1.4%.

Oct 14, 2021

Home Depot Teams Up with Walmart
Image Source: Home Depot Inc – Fiscal 2020 Annual Report. On October 6, Home Depot announced a partnership with Walmart, becoming the first retail giant to join Walmart’s GoLocal delivery program which was launched back in August 2021. The delivery program utilizes Walmart’s vast distribution and fulfillment network to provide same-day and next-day delivery services. We like Home Depot as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the firm’s stellar cash flow generating abilities and promising growth outlook underpin our forecasts that the company will grow its payout at a robust pace in the coming years. As of this writing, shares of HD yield ~2.0%.

Oct 13, 2021

Fastenal’s Latest Earnings Update Indicates US Economic Recovery Continues
Image Source: Fastenal Company – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 12, Fastenal reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat top-line consensus estimates and matched bottom-line consensus estimates. The company’s latest earnings report reinforces our thesis that the US economy is continuing to recover from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. In 2020, Fastenal generated over 85% of its total sales in the US. Fastenal provides products and services in the decentralized maintenance, repair & operation (‘MRO’) industry, a space where the company attempts to gain an advantage over distribution by locating its operations as close as possible to the economic point of contract with its customers. We view Fastenal as a bellwether to broader trends in the industrials sector. With that said, let's dig into its latest report.

Oct 13, 2021

High-Yield Idea CyrusOne Considers Selling Itself
Image Shown: Shares of CyrusOne, an idea included in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, are on a modest upward climb of late. The data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) is reportedly considering putting itself up for sale, though we like the REIT’s income generation upside regardless of whether a sale does materialize as its outlook continues to improve after posting stellar performance during the first half of 2021. Reportedly, CyrusOne is actively exploring a potential sale according to Reuters. We include shares of CONE as an idea in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. The data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) has experienced significant turnover in its top ranks over the past couple of years which we will cover briefly, as that likely set the stage for the potential sale. Should CyrusOne decide not to sell itself, we would still be fans of its business model, growth runway, improving outlook, and income generation potential. Let's dig into latest developments in this article.

Oct 6, 2021

Domino’s Pizza Is a Stellar FCF Generator with an Enormous Growth Runway
Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. One of our favorite capital appreciation ideas is Domino’s Pizza, and we include shares of DPZ as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The company’s unit economics are incredibly attractive for current and potential franchisees, which encourages current franchises to expand their existing operations and potential franchisees to join the team. At the top end of our fair value estimate range, Domino’s Pizza has a fair value of $541 per share, well above where shares of DPZ are trading at as of this writing.

Oct 1, 2021

Best Idea Visa on the Rebound, Generating Gobs of Free Cash Flow
Image Shown: Visa Inc is a stellar free cash flow generator and is included as an idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Visa Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We are huge fans of the payment processing and payment solutions space. This industry is supported by secular growth tailwinds due to the global shift away from cash-to-card and card-not-present (e.g. online purchases) purchase options, and the ongoing proliferation of e-commerce. Furthermore, companies in this space benefit immensely from the network effect, which creates an economic moat for their business. These companies are incredibly lucrative with relatively high operating margins and impressive free cash flow generating abilities, aided by their relatively modest capital expenditure requirements to maintain a certain level of revenues. We include payment networks giant Visa as a “top-weighted” idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and view its capital appreciation upside quite favorably, with the top end of our fair value estimate range sitting at $304 per share of Visa.

Sep 24, 2021

Cisco Systems’ Growth Outlook Continues to Improve
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – 2021 Investor Day Event Presentation. Things at Cisco Systems are beginning to turn around and management made sure to highlight the company’s improving outlook during its big Investor Day event held on September 15. We include Cisco Systems as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios as the firm has a fortress-like balance sheet (i.e., large net cash position), tremendous free cash flow generating abilities, and its growth outlook has improved immensely since contending with serious headwinds from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of CSCO yield ~2.6% as of this writing.

Sep 24, 2021

Honeywell’s Dividend Growth Supported by Promising Cash Flow Growth Outlook
Image Source: Honeywell International Inc – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We view Honeywell International as one of the best industrial plays out there and include shares of HON as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Honeywell has exposure to the aerospace and downstream energy markets--industries that were hit hard by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic but are now recovering in earnest--and to the proliferation of e-commerce and “smart buildings.” Furthermore, in the event that a bipartisan infrastructure bill currently awaiting approval in the US House of Representatives gets signed into law, Honeywell has exposure to the expected surge in domestic infrastructure investments. Our fair value estimate for Honeywell sits at $240 per share with room for upside as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $288 per share. As of this writing, shares of HON yield ~1.7%.

Sep 22, 2021

Facebook’s Stock Sell Off Explained
Image: Facebook's free cash flow generation has been resilient in the face of prior iOS updates, and we think it will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Source: Facebook. We never like to see a 10-rated stock sell off, even if it’s up more than 30% so far this year and up over 140% since it registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index in January 2019, but that’s what we’ve been closely following with Facebook. The stock experienced similar selling pressure during the summer of 2018, and while we’re huge fans of this underpriced tech giant in the long run, we think shares may face more selling pressure in the near term. Nonetheless, we’re reiterating its 10-rating on the Valuentum Buying Index and our $515 fair value estimate. Shares closed Friday at ~$353 each.