Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Nov 5, 2021

Qualcomm Explodes Higher Towards Our Fair Value Estimate; Semiconductor Supply Chain Update
Image Source: Qualcomm's shares have surged toward our fair value estimate. We continue to like shares of this dividend growth giant. Qualcomm remains a free-cash-flow generating juggernaut that has a very healthy dividend. Management surprised the market to the upside with its fiscal fourth-quarter report and guidance and indicated that supply chain issues are “playing out exactly as (they) planned,” as the firm expects supply and demand to be aligned by the second half of 2022. We were pleased by the news and are reiterating our $170 per share fair value estimate and the company as an idea for long-term dividend growth investors.

Nov 4, 2021

Our Favorite Energy Giants Chevron and ExxonMobil are Focused on Returning Cash to Shareholders
Image Shown: Shares of Chevron Corporation (blue line) and ExxonMobil Corporation (orange line) are both up sharply year-to-date as of this writing. We liked what we saw in the latest earnings reports from Chevron and ExxonMobil. Both are focused on fiscal discipline and returning cash to shareholders in the form of dividend payments and share repurchases. Looking ahead, the outlook for the global energy complex is quite bright, and we continue to be huge fans of both Chevron and ExxonMobil. Please note we also include Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to gain diversified exposure to the recovering global energy complex.

Nov 3, 2021

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Nov 1, 2021

FinTech Stocks Still Attractive, Market Overreacting to Visa’s Cross-Border Travel Outlook
Image: Visa continues to rake in the free cash flow. Though its outlook is clouded somewhat by recovering cross-border travel transaction volumes, we still like its asset-light, free-cash-flow rich business model. Cryptocurrency trading is all the rage these days, but when it comes down to it, the average consumer isn’t using crypto to pay for everyday goods and services. We believe fintech is a great way to play the firm foundations of asset-light, free-cash-flow generating entities that are exposed to crypto adoption but not pure plays to crypto’s success, which is far from guaranteed. Cloudy outlooks from Visa and Mastercard regarding cross-border travel activity have many fintech investors somewhat cautious heading into 2022, but we couldn’t be bigger fans of the group. Visa and PayPal remain two of our favorite fintech ideas.

Nov 1, 2021

Don’t Throw Out These Garbage Stocks
Image Source: Republic Services. We’re huge fans of the waste-hauling industry, and we nailed one of the best-performing ideas in Republic Services for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares of Republic Services have advanced nearly 40% so far this year, and fundamental momentum has continued in its business, with the executive team raising both adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance and adjusted free cash flow guidance for 2021 when it reported third-quarter earnings. Shares yield ~1.4% at the time of this writing.

Oct 28, 2021

Microsoft: Net Cash Rich, Free Cash Flow Generating, Dividend Growth Powerhouse
Image: Microsoft remains one of the most attractive technology companies. Its outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 came in better than expected. Image Source: Microsoft. Microsoft has long been a favorite of ours. The technology giant continued its dominance into the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 (ends September) and guided the current calendar quarter revenue above consensus forecasts. Its free cash flow generation remains top notch, and its balance sheet is flush with net cash. Microsoft remains an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares have a dividend yield of ~0.8% at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Microsoft stands at $360 per share.

Oct 28, 2021

Alphabet Launches Higher
Image: Our fair value estimate of Alphabet has continued to lead the stock higher, and shares continued to deliver following the company’s third-quarter report, released October 28. Alphabet registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index in January 2019 at just below $1,100 per share. Shares have launched to nearly $3,000 since then, and we continue to expect strong performance given the company’s tremendous free cash flow generation, huge net cash position, secular growth prospects in search advertising, and above-market fair value estimate that stands at ~$3,500. We like shares of this top-weighted position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 26, 2021

Facebook’s Third-Quarter 2021 Results Better Than Feared
Image: Facebook continues to put up impressive levels of free cash flow generation. We remain huge fans of the stock. Image Source: Facebook. Facebook showed what it means to have a wide economic moat when it reported its third-quarter 2021 results. Robust revenue growth in the face of disruptive Apple iOS 14 privacy changes, impressive operating-income expansion in the face of considerable expense growth to build out the ‘metaverse,’ and cultural resilience in the face on a slew of media attacks on its business practices reveal that Facebook may be near-invincible. We’re huge fans of Facebook’s free cash flow generation capacity and its attractive net-cash-rich balance sheet, and we expect more good things to come from this top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. A huge new buyback authorization that we thought was in the cards in the wake of share-price weakness has arrived, and we love that Facebook is scooping up its undervalued stock. We’re maintaining our 10 rating on the VBI and $515 fair value estimate for shares.

Oct 24, 2021

Best Idea Chipotle Mexican Grill’s Growth Runway is Enormous
Image Shown: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s restaurant level unit economics continued to improve in the third quarter of 2021, supporting the company’s growth trajectory. Image Source: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 Non-GAAP Reconciliation Presentation. On October 21, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable restaurant sales grew 15% year-over-year last quarter as Chipotle’s e-commerce business held up well, with digital sales up 9% year-over-year (representing 43% of its total sales during this period), while customers resumed in-store dining activities in earnest. We liked what we saw in Chipotle’s latest earnings report. Shares of CMG are included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 24, 2021

Philip Morris International Boosts Dividend, Cost Structure Improving
Image Shown: An overview of Philip Morris International Inc’s guidance for 2021. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 19, Philip Morris International reported third quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The firm narrowed its reported diluted EPS estimate for 2021 in conjunction with the report, which saw the midpoint of its guidance move marginally lower,. However, Philip Morris International’s non-GAAP currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS forecast for 2021 now calls for 13%-14% growth over 2020 levels, which is an improvement from its previous guidance calling for 12%-14% growth.