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Valuentum Commentary
Dec 12, 2017
CVS Health at the Crossroads, Too Much Debt
Image Source: CVS Health. We have been disappointed with the lack progress displayed by CVS Health thus far in 2017. We knew the business was entering into an earnings trough as a result of key contract losses, but recent events have unfolded that, in our view, have lessened the attractiveness of its business model, to a meaningful degree. Let’s talk more about what’s happening at CVS Health, the changing PBM market, Amazon’s threat, and too much leverage. We’re not overreacting, but we’re not happy either. Nov 26, 2017
How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform
Image Source: DonkeyHotey. Donald Trump and team are working hard to “Make America Great Again,” and lowering tax rates on corporations is a key initiative. Nobody knows for sure whether such efforts will come to fruition, but knowing how to use our research and understanding the fair value estimate range puts you ahead of the crowd, if it hasn’t already. Oct 31, 2017
CVS Health Under Review – Hit by a Storm of Negativity
Image Source: Mike Mozart. We are putting the fair value estimate of CVS Health under review while we re-evaluate the competitive environment and reassess the company’s appetite for leverage, which could impact dividend health. Sep 12, 2017
Target, Kroger Launch Counterattack on Amazon-Whole Foods; Industry Earnings to Shrink
Image Source: Valuentum. The pricing war has begun, but it may take years before we see the final effects. Only the strongest may come out ahead, and only those already focusing on giving customers the very best value proposition at the lowest prices may retain share. Aug 18, 2017
CVS Health Still Stuck in Neutral
Image Source: CVS Health. CVS Health continues to perform as expected in the current lower reimbursement environment. We remain enthused with the copious amount of free cash flow that the enterprise produces, which has allowed management to continue its shareholder-friendly ways. We remain vigilant for signs of a key inflection point, however, and a catalyst may exist in the results of the current PBM selling season. Aug 7, 2017
Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva
Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance. Jul 17, 2017
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 14
Let's take a look at companies raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jul 6, 2017
Walgreens Builds Out Its Network
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Walgreens continues its quest to build out its network of pharmacies. The goal is to maintain the largest network in the US, which would make exclusion from a payer’s network very difficult. Let’s review the recently-revised terms of the deal to acquire a portion of Rite Aid, the third-largest pharmacy chain in the US. Jun 16, 2017
Amazon To Buy Whole Foods: Not Creative Destruction, Just Destruction
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Amazon announced plans to buy Whole Foods. We’re viewing the news as affirmation of our decision to stay largely away from retail exposure in the newsletter portfolios. We think a bidding war for Whole Foods is possible, mostly to keep it and its real estate out of the hands of Amazon, potentially setting up for a true “winner’s curse” scenario. The winner will overpay. Jun 14, 2017
Opinion: Is Amazon Prepared to Tackle the Pharmacy Market?
The meteoric rise of Amazon, both with respect to the breadth of its business operations and stock price, continues. On news of the rumor of its potential entry into the pharmacy market, entities speculated that may feel an impact immediately sold off. Though it’s much too early to estimate the extent of any impact Amazon’s entrance into the pharmacy market may bring, let’s take look at potential implications, courtesy of healthcare and biotech contributor Alexander J. Poulos. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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