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Valuentum Commentary
Jul 13, 2019
Broadcom Might Buy Symantec: Why Enterprise Valuation Matters
Our fair value estimate for shares of SYMC stands at $25, and that estimate hasn’t changed much over the past few years. Generally speaking, fair value estimates shouldn’t fluctuate much as the value of the discounted free-cash-flows-to-the-firm during the mid-cycle period and into perpetuity generally have the greatest influence on the fair value of the equity. Profit warnings are important, but more so as it relates to the trajectory of the company’s free cash flow generation. Transformative acquisitions, major structural shifts in the industry the company in question operates in, or other fundamental changes are all potential sources of meaningful changes in fair value. Jul 1, 2019
New Highs! The December Call Has Been Well-Rewarded
"The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own." - Warren Buffett (2018) Jun 16, 2019
Valuentum's June Best Ideas Newsletter
Image: Page 49, June edition of American Library Association Booklist."I hope that my book Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation marks a turning point in the financial research industry. To you and me, 1) looking forward, 2) understanding that stock values are based on future expectations, and 3) calculating intrinsic value is simply par for the course. If other investors are not doing this, it should be no surprise that they are failing miserably. 90% underperformance! I hope my book serves as a wake up call for readers to demand forward-looking analysis and research that calculates a best fair value estimate." -- Brian Nelson, CFA Jun 14, 2019
Broadcom Plummets After Cutting Guidance
Image Source: Florian Knodt. Broadcom resets investor expectations, sending shares of the company and peers lower. Broadcom sports a juicy yield. Jun 3, 2019
Now a Trade War on Multiple Fronts!
“To complicate matters further, President Trump also announced that he is looking to tariffs on Mexico if the country doesn’t take steps to stop the flow of illegal immigration. The US is now fighting a trade war on two fronts.” – Brian Nelson, CFA May 17, 2019
Cisco Delivers, Deere Disappoints, Pinterest Plummets, More Reports
In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: AMAT, BIDU, CSCO, DE, FLO, INTC, JACK, PINS, WMT. May 14, 2019
Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger
Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a "fully invested" position, from a 30% and 20% cash "weighting" at the high end of the range, respectively. Apr 26, 2019
Facebook Was Textbook, Intel Still About Fairly Valued After Weakness
Image: Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook's stock has advanced 56% since it bottomed in December. This is yet another textbook execution of the Valuentum Buying Index, a strong breakout of the downtrend on a significantly undervalued stock. See also the example with Apple on page 241 in Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. Apr 23, 2019
We Like Both Apple and Intel; Facebook's Earnings Preview
Apple and Intel have been prominent holdings in the simulated newsletter portfolios for some time now, and we’re interested in what Facebook has to say regarding recent developments in its upcoming earnings release. Apr 9, 2019
Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed
Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don't believe Warren Buffett's "style" is out of favor? Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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