Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 8, 2021

Putting the Environmental in ESG
Image: This excerpt from the Valuentum Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scoring System shows how environmental considerations are analyzed. Environmental considerations are just one piece of the ESG analysis, but they can reveal a lot about a company and its values. Companies that make a commitment to protecting the environment, especially those that are doing it better than their peers, are not only recognizing the social importance but also protecting themselves--and their investors--from negative financial impacts related to environment issues.

Sep 21, 2021

Booming Natural Gas Prices Great News for Chevron and ExxonMobil
Image Shown: Chevron Corporation – August 2021 IR Presentation. Natural gas prices in the US measured by the Henry Hub benchmark based in Erath, Louisiana, have surged higher over the past several months. This is partially due to the slowdown in domestic oil & gas development activity that occurred back in 2020 in the wake of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and low crude oil prices. Though crude oil prices, measured by the domestic WTI and international Brent benchmarks, have since recovered, that has not resulted in domestic drilling activity returning to levels seen in 2019, though development activity has recovered somewhat. Henry Hub futures are trading north of $5 per million British thermal units (‘MMBtu’) through February 2022 as of this writing, dropping just below $5 per MMBtu for March 2022 deliveries.

Sep 17, 2021

Our Two Favorite Midstream MLPs: EPD and MMP
Image Source: Enterprise Products Partners L.P. – August 2021 IR Presentation. The global economy is steadily recovering from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though variants of the virus remain a concern. Enterprise Products and Magellan Midstream are well-positioned to capitalize on this recovery while continuing to make good on their “generous” payout obligations.

Sep 14, 2021

Chevron Investing in Biofuels and Hydrogen
Image Source: Chevron Corporation – August 2021 IR Presentation. We are huge fans of Chevron’s dividend growth potential in the wake of the recovery seen in raw energy resources pricing year-to-date. Shares of CVX yield ~5.6% as of this writing, and we expect Chevron will steadily grow its payout going forward, aided by its promising free cash flow growth trajectory.

Aug 17, 2021

ExxonMobil Continues to Optimize Its Asset Base
Image Source: ExxonMobil Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. According to Reuters, ExxonMobil Corp is in the process of divesting its Fayetteville shale play position in Arkansas, which ExxonMobil’s spokeswoman Julie King confirmed according to the news outlet. This is an upstream asset focused on the extraction of natural gas from the ground via “fracking” techniques (combing horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to unlock raw energy resources from the ground).

Aug 6, 2021

ExxonMobil’s Great Earnings Report and Promising Growth Outlook
Image Shown: An overview of ExxonMobil Corporation’s strategy to generate shareholder value going forward. Image Source: ExxonMobil Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 Earnings IR Presentation. ExxonMobil’s financial performance is on the upswing, and its operational performance has been firing on all cylinders of late. We continue to be big fans of both ExxonMobil’s capital appreciation upside and dividend growth potential. Our fair value estimate for ExxonMobil under our “base” case scenario sits at $83 per share, well above where shares of XOM are trading as of this writing. The company’s Dividend Cushion ratio sits near parity at 0.9, and we rate both ExxonMobil’s Dividend Growth and Dividend Safety ratings as “GOOD” given its impressive cash flow generating potential. Shares of XOM yield a nice ~6.0% as of this writing.

Aug 3, 2021

Chevron Posts a Great Earnings Update, Share Repurchases to Resume
Image Shown: An overview of Chevron Corporation’s performance in the second quarter of 2021. We include shares of Chevron as an idea in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios and continue to be huge fans of the name as the global energy complex continues to recover from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19 pandemic). Image Source: Chevron Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. The global energy complex continues to recover from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and that speaks quite favorably to Chevron’s outlook. Management is committed to improving the company’s balance sheet strength going forward, which we really appreciate. Chevron’s free cash flow performance in the second quarter highlights the incredibly powerful positive effect the recovery is having on its financial performance. Share buybacks, in moderation, represent a good use of capital in our view (based on where shares of CVX are trading at as of this writing). With all of this in mind, we would like to stress that Chevron remains committed to its dividend (the firm moderately boosted its quarterly dividend during the second quarter of 2021 by ~4% sequentially). We continue to like Chevron as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Jul 13, 2021

Chevron’s Promising Cash Flow Growth Outlook
Image Source: Chevron Corporation – May 2021 IR Presentation. The outlook for the global energy complex is bright and getting brighter as public health authorities utilize widespread coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) vaccine distribution efforts to put an end to the pandemic. We added shares of Chevron Corporation to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 27 in order to gain exposure to the ongoing recovery in the global energy complex via a high-quality integrated oil major. Shares of CVX yield ~5.1% as of this writing.

Jul 7, 2021

ExxonMobil’s Immense Upside in Guyana
Image Source: ExxonMobil Corporation – 2021 Investor Day Presentation. ExxonMobil generated $6.9 billion in free cash flow during the first quarter of 2021, up from just $0.3 billion in the same period the prior year when the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic began to slow the global economy to a crawl. Please note that working capital movements and the timing of capital expenditures often have an outsized influence on an energy firm’s quarterly financials, though the trajectory is crystal clear, ExxonMobil is well on its way to recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. ExxonMobil spent $3.8 billion covering its total dividend obligations in the first quarter of 2021 and spent a negligible amount buying back its stock during this period. Both of these activities were fully covered by its free cash flows with room to spare, highlighting the company’s potential dividend growth upside going forward.

Jun 24, 2021

Energy: A Small Part of the S&P 500 But Making a Comeback
Image Source: Bureau of Land Management. The energy sector is now a small part of the S&P 500, but improving energy resource pricing has enhanced the merits of many in the space, namely the dividend growth and income prospects at ExxonMobil and Chevron. Both companies offer investors dividend yields north of 5%, and both have experienced tremendous improvements in free cash flow generation thanks in part to more prudent capital spending. We’ll be looking to add both to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on any market breather. We like the risk/reward opportunity.