Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Mar 20, 2020

Stress in the Oil & Gas Industry Grows as Major Energy Exporters Hunker Down
Image Shown: WTI is down almost 61% over the past year as raw energy resources prices were decimated by the news that OPEC and non-OPEC members couldn’t reach another production curtailment deal in early-March 2020. Upstream capital expenditures are coming down aggressively in the US shale patch and elsewhere, and just as importantly, even the bigger firms are throwing in the towel and scaling back their ambitions. Exxon Mobil has recently pledged to make material cuts to its capital expenditure budget, while Chevron is considering such a move, as are others. It will take a lot more than that to stabilize raw energy resources pricing given the demand destruction caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with many households in major demand regions (namely the US and Europe) now “cocooning” in their homes to wait out the crisis. That’s on top of an expected surge in oil supplies from OPEC and non-OPEC nations, with an eye towards Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia. We caution our members to not catch a falling knife here.

Mar 9, 2020

Oil Prices Collapse, Reiterating 2,350-2,750 S&P 500 Target Range; Credit Crunch Looming?
From Value Trap: “The banking sector was not the only sector that faced considerable selling pressure during the Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, of course. Other companies that required funding to maintain their business operations faced severe liquidity risk, or a situation where refinancing, or rolling over debt, might be difficult to do on fair terms, making such financing prohibitive in some cases. Those that faced outsize debt maturities during the most severe months of the credit crunch faced a real threat of Chapter 11 restructuring had the lending environment completely seized. In thinking about share prices as a range of probable fair value outcomes, equity prices tend to face pressure as downside probabilities such as a liquidity event are baked into the market price and at a higher probability. Because debtholders are higher up on the capital structure than equity holders, shareholders can sometimes get nothing in the event of a bankruptcy filing. Entities that are extremely capital-market dependent, or those that require ongoing access to new capital to fund operations, often face the greatest risk of the worst equity price declines during deteriorating credit market conditions.” Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, published 2018

Aug 28, 2018

ETF Analysis: Energy
Energy sector ETFs offer a diversified way to capture the potential for higher crude oil prices without being exposed to the capital budget decisions of any one operator.

Nov 30, 2017

Charting Cash Flow and Net Debt -- The Oil Majors
Image Source: Valuentum. Traditional free cash flow generation has been strong for the oil majors through the first nine months of the year, but their balance sheets remain bloated with net debt. A few haven't covered their cash dividends with free cash flow generation through the first nine months of 2017.

Jan 26, 2016

Not Doom and Gloom – But Just Cautious…
Let’s go around the world in this note…

Oct 5, 2015

Standard & Poor’s Notes Heightened Default Risks
The markets knew this was coming, but we think it’s worth repeating. How we’re playing the bounce in energy stocks…

Jan 3, 2014

Buffett Doubles Down on USG; Teva Expected to Appoint New CEO; Crude by Rail Transportation Comes under Scrutiny
Buffett more than doubles stake in wallboard maker USG, generic pharmaceutical giant Teva rumored to find CEO, while concerns about crude-by-rail heighten.

Sep 26, 2013

Bakken Production Is Booming and Continental Resources Is a Winner
Production of shale oil in the Bakken continues to grow rapidly, and the long-term production fortunes in the region remain as positive as ever. Let’s take a look at Continental Resources, a firm we believe has 35% upside from current levels and one that recently made our list of 'The 25 Cheapest Stocks on the Market'.

Jun 9, 2013

Valuentum’s Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
Let’s take a deep dive into the energy sector. The best dividend growth ideas, the most likely takeout candidates and more...