Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 2, 2020

ICYMI -- Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle
Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. In many dividend-targeted ETFs, for example, it may not matter to the index creator whether a firm has $10 billion in net debt or $10 billion in net cash; as long as management has a track record of raising the dividend in the past, it is included. To us, however, there is a world of difference between a company that has a huge net cash position and a huge net debt position. The more excess cash on the balance sheet a dividend payer has, for example, the more secure its payout. In some cases, entities held in high-yielding ETFs don't even cover their dividends or distributions with traditional free cash flow generation, despite having ominous net debt loads. A look at the high-yielding ALPS Alerian MLP ETF, for example, shows a number of entities that are buried under a mountain of debt and are generating meager free cash flow relative to expected distributions. The lofty yield on that ETF should therefore be viewed with a very cautious eye. If the yield weren't at risk for a big cut, the market would bid up the stock, and down the yield would go. In no way should you believe that you can sleep well at night holding stocks yielding north of 10% when the current 10-year Treasury is well below 1%. The market is just not that inefficient. A dividend growth strategy can never be a passive one either. Only through constant attention to the balance sheet (net cash) and future free cash flow expectations can investors truly sleep well at night. At Valuentum, we do the balance sheet and cash flow work and summarize it succinctly in a key ratio called the Dividend Cushion ratio.

Apr 24, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 24
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jul 26, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

May 3, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 3
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jan 3, 2019

Brace for More Volatility
Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August of last year. The markets have broken through key support levels, and now support has become resistance. Volatility remains heightened since the low-vol ETN blew up in February.This article is the introduction to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter, both of which will be released today due to the holiday January 1.

Apr 27, 2018

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 27
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

May 1, 2017

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending Apr 28
Let's take a look at companies raising/lowering their dividends this week.

May 3, 2016

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 29
Let's take a look at companies raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Sep 2, 2014

The Dividend Dilemma
Remember that you’re putting your hard-earned capital at risk for an income stream. Be sure to keep your guard up.

Aug 4, 2014

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending August 1
Let's take a look at dividend increases for the week ending August 1.