Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 22, 2022

ESG Newsletter Portfolio Idea ASML Holding May Further Boost Longer Term Guidance
Image Shown: How ASML Holding Inc’s photolithography systems are used to produce semiconductor components, including the most cutting edge “chips” along with more mature semiconductor components. Image Source: ASML Holding Inc – Fiscal 2021 Annual Report. The maker of advanced photolithography systems that are used to produce the most cutting edge semiconductor components or “chips” is the Dutch firm ASML Holding NV. It has a virtual monopoly at the high-end of this market due to its technological prowess in this space and focus on R&D. The firm also produces photolithography systems to make more mature chips and offers services that are primarily geared towards its installed systems base. ASML Holding reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended April 3, 2022) on April 20 that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates and its order backlog remains robust.

Mar 21, 2022

ASML Holding Is a Tremendous Enterprise, Holds Fantastic Competitive Position
Image Source: ASML Holding NV – 2021 Annual Report. The Dutch firm ASML Holding NV makes the photolithography systems used by semiconductor foundries to produce “chips” that power the modern economy. In part due to its immense technological lead over its competitors, ASML Holding effectively has a monopoly at the high end of its industry, meaning its photolithography systems are required to produce the most advanced semiconductor components. The company also offers semiconductor equipment services and stands to gain immensely from ongoing growth in its installed equipment base. We're huge fans of the company.

Feb 10, 2022

Best Idea Disney Rebounding Nicely; Shares Look Cheap
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company strengthened February 9 in the wake of the media and entertainment giant's latest earnings report. We include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. On February 9, The Walt Disney Company reported first-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings (period ended January 1, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. A sharp rebound at its ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ unit impressed investors and shares of DIS are strengthening nicely in the wake of its latest earnings report. We are big fans of Disney and include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands at $179 per share of Disney with room for upside as the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $219 per share. Shares are currently trading at ~$155 each at the time of this writing.

Feb 3, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Growing Robustly
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Qualcomm Inc posted a solid earnings update and provided promising near term guidance on February 2. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 2, dividend growth idea Qualcomm reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended December 26, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The semiconductor company issued guidance for the current fiscal quarter that calls for double-digit revenue and earnings growth versus fiscal year-ago levels, though shares of QCOM still dipped modestly in after-hours trading that day. We continue to like Qualcomm as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the firm remains a free cash flow cow with a promising growth outlook.

Jan 27, 2022

Apple Blows Past Expectations in Fiscal First Quarter!
Image Source: Valuentum. On January 27, 2022, Apple put up one of the best quarters by any company in history and a record for the Cupertino-based iPhone-making giant. Revenue for the quarter ending December 25, 2021, of $123.9 billion advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while quarterly earnings per share came in at $2.10. The top line beat expectations by more than $5 billion, even with supply chain hurdles, and the bottom-line beat of $0.20 per share was more than 10%, a huge delta considering the size of the company. We’re viewing the report very positively, and we think the strong performance may ease some broader market concerns. Apple’s gross and operating margins looked healthy, and only performance in its iPad division came in a bit light, but this was almost entirely driven by supply chain issues. Apple generated a solid $19.5 billion in revenue from its ‘Services’ division during the period, up from $15.8 billion in the year-ago quarter, showcasing its ever-growing and “sticky” installed base. Warren Buffett is a big owner of Apple’s stock, and we continue to be in favor of buybacks at Apple, too, even at these price levels. Though Apple’s market capitalization is sizable, we value shares close to $190 each at the high end of our fair value estimate range. Apple remains one of our favorite ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Jan 23, 2022

Netflix’s Subscriber Growth Is Slowing Down, Competition Heating Up
Image Shown: Netflix Inc’s paid subscriber base is expected to grow at a slower pace in the near term compared to the performance seen in recent years. Image Source: Netflix Inc – Shareholder letter covering the fourth quarter of 2021. On January 20, Netflix reported fourth-quarter 2021 earnings after the bell. The video streaming giant met consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates last quarter as original content such as the South Korean TV show Squid Game (released September 2021) proved to be quite popular in markets around the globe and helped Netflix retain interest in its service. During Netflix’s latest earnings call, management noted that the violent Squid Game TV show had been renewed for a second season when asked by an analyst about the issue. However, the near-term guidance Netflix provided in conjunction with its latest earnings update signaled that growth in its paid subscriber base was expected to slow down in the first quarter of 2022 on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. During regular trading hours on January 21, shares of NFLX were pummeled.

Oct 25, 2021

Intel’s Huge Expected Capital Spending Gives Dividend Growth Investors Pause
Image: Intel has advanced nicely during the past several years, but more recently, its choppy stock behavior is reflective of the market having trouble figuring out the future direction of this tech behemoth, particularly in light of encroaching competition and huge expected capital spending growth. Shares offer investors a healthy 2.8% dividend yield, however, which gives the stock a sturdy foundation for the time being. In October 2020, we decided to remove Intel from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as competition was heating up and the firm’s balance sheet started to lose its luster. Weakening free cash flow due to a huge expected capital-spending build now makes Intel incrementally less attractive of an idea, though we note shares continue to trade within our fair value estimate range ($45-$67), which may be revised slightly lower on the next update. A dividend yield of ~2.8% is supported by future free cash flow in the near term, but there may be more clouds on the horizon (and investors should expect a lower Dividend Cushion ratio upon the next update, too). We’re comfortable being on the sidelines as there are so many other investment considerations that fit the financial bill better, in our view--namely those capital-appreciation and dividend-growth considerations with strong net cash positions and strong future expected free cash flow growth.

Aug 12, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Enters Bidding War to Bolster Automotive Growth Runway
Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – March 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Presentation. One of our favorite semiconductor plays is Qualcomm. For those just getting familiar with the name, the company is about much more than just supplying components used in smartphones. While the rollout of 5G-capable smartphones will provide Qualcomm’s medium-term financial performance a large boost due to its Snapdragon mobile platform offerings, another key aspect of Qualcomm’s promising growth story is its exposure to the automotive industry.

Jun 15, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Proactively Managing Fallout from Global Chip Shortage
Image Shown: Qualcomm Inc, one of our favorite semiconductor firms, noted in March 2021 that the rollout of 5G wireless networks is accelerating which in turn supports its outlook. We include shares of QCOM as an idea in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders IR Presentation. One of our favorite ways to gain exposure to the semiconductor industry is Qualcomm Inc, and we include shares of QCOM as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Qualcomm’s IP portfolio and the “chips” that it designs play an essential role in enabling 5G connectivity in smartphones, powering the digital capabilities of modern automobiles, and supporting wireless network operations (including 5G networks). Qualcomm’s business model remained resilient in the face of headwinds caused by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The company’s asset-light business model (relatively modest capital expenditure requirements to maintain a certain level of revenues) enables Qualcomm is generate sizable free cash flows in almost any environment, and its promising growth outlook is underpinned by secular tailwinds.

May 28, 2021

Nvidia Growing at a Brisk Pace Amid Chip Shortage
Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – GTC Spring 2021 Investor Day Presentation. On May 26, Nvidia Corp reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended May 2, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Demand for Nvidia’s chips used in data center and gaming offerings remains robust. Looking ahead, Nvidia provided guidance for the fiscal second quarter during its latest earnings update that indicated its strong performance was expected to continue.