Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 15, 2021

LVMH Posts Record Sales Performance
Image Source: LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton - October 2021 IR Presentation. The France-based luxury goods company LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton provided an update on its sales performance during the first three quarters of 2021 on October 12. LVMH’s revenues grew by 46% year-over-year, reaching EUR44.2 billion (a record for the company), and organic sales were up 40% year-over-year during the first nine months of 2021. The company’s ‘Fashion & Leather Goods’ segment, responsible for a little under half of its total sales, saw its revenue surge higher during this period led by fashion powerhouses Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior Couture. Strength in the US and Asian luxury goods markets bolstered LVMH’s financial performance this year. Let's take a deeper look to get a read on how the luxury space has been performing after the worst of the pandemic.

May 15, 2021

The Investment Case for the 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200 Basketball Card
Image Shown: 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200. After I put together a video on the roaring basketball card market, I received a few questions on which basketball card I thought was the most undervalued in today’s market. The interest is understandable given news that a Lebron James rookie card recently sold for $5.2 million, a Luka Doncic card sold for $4.6 million, and a Kobe Bryant rookie refractor sold for $1.8 million. First of all, I am far from an expert in this field, but I thought it would be a useful exercise to apply my analytical and research skills to assess whether there might be undervalued opportunities. Importantly, it’s worth noting that basketball cards, even the coveted Lebron James rookie that just sold for $5.2 million, are assets that do not generate free cash flow to the owner, and therefore, are only worth what the next person will pay for it. They are “greater fool” assets, perhaps as much as fine art or fine wine, for example. With this risk clearly noted, I believe the most undervalued basketball card in today’s market is the 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200.

May 5, 2021

Video: Sports Cards as an Alternative Asset Class
Image: 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson. Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson explains recent developments in the sports cards and memorabilia market, and why he thinks the area will become a feasible, transparent and liquid alternative asset class for investors to consider in the longer run.

Feb 26, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jan 5, 2021

The Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Is Hot and Getting Hotter
Image Shown: A look at Tesla Inc’s new Gigafactory factory (Model Y body shop) in Shanghai, China. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The electric vehicle (‘EV’) market is hot and getting hotter. Aided by a combination of supportive government policies such as subsides for EVs (purchase tax credits, manufacturing tax credits), plans to ban the sale of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (‘ICE’) in the coming years, and shifting consumer preferences (households preferring to appear “green”), the long-term outlook for EV sales is quite bright. Tesla is the posterchild of the EV boom given its first-mover advantage, though competitive headwinds are rising. Legacy auto manufacturers are looking to bulk up their EV offerings while new market entrants such as Lordstown Motors and privately-held Rivian, are set to further disrupt the industry. Ford Motor invested in Rivian back in 2019 to bulk up its presence in the EV market. By the middle of 2021, Rivian aims to begin deliveries of its EV pickup truck in the US, the R1T. Lordstown Motors also aims to bring an EV pickup truck to market, named the Endurance, with deliveries set to begin in early-2021. However, as global EV sales appear set to grow immensely, there is room for a number of winners in this space. Back in July 2020, privately-held Deloitte estimated that global EV sales will grow from an estimated 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025 and then to 31.1 million by 2030, good for annual compound growth of about 29% in the coming decade, according to the research firm. EV sales in China are expected to represent about half of global EV sales in 2030, according to Deloitte, followed by the European market representing just over one quarter of global EV sales in 2030.

Nov 5, 2020

General Motors Playing Catch Up
Image: Hummer EV. According to General Motors’ website, the Hummer EV will be a “zero emissions, zero limits all-electric supertruck.” Today’s GM is in much better shape than it was during the Great Financial Crisis when it succumbed to legacy issues as evidenced by its resilience during the COVID-19 meltdown, but the reality is that operationally-leveraged cyclicals with sticky costs, messy financials, and encroaching rivals don’t tend to command a large multiple. Throw in the opaqueness of its financing arm, which adds $88.9 billion in long-term debt to the balance sheet as of the end of last year, and GM becomes too difficult a stock to own, in our view. At $36 each, GM’s shares may have bounced back a bit too much based on our fair value estimate.

Feb 21, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 21
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Aug 19, 2019

No Recession At Walmart; Estee Lauder Not Cheap
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Walmart’s results were quite reassuring regarding the health of the economy. There are also pockets of significant strength, with prestige beauty being catapulted by a “selfie generation.”

Jul 25, 2018

General Motors Cuts Guidance on Higher Input Costs
Image Source: GM earnings release. Simulated newsletter portfolio idea General Motors cut its full-year guidance due to higher than expected commodity cost increases and devaluation of key currencies in South America. Peers Ford and Fiat Chrysler also lowered 2018 guidance measures following a tough second quarter for the group.

May 28, 2018

Uncertainty of Italy’s Political Future Weighing on Global Investors' Minds
Image shown: Duomo di Milano. Italy holds ~$2.7 trillion in public debt, and global investors are worried that a new government could implement policies that would weaken the country’s credit status. Though a sovereign debt crisis does not seem probable at this point, bond markets are suggesting that risks are rising.