Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 20, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Nov 10, 2023

Use Both the Dividend Cushion Ratio (Probability of a Dividend Cut) and the Qualitative Dividend Ratings in Your Assessment of the Payout
The Dividend Cushion ratio ranks companies on the probability of a dividend cut in the longer run, while the qualitative ratings in part assess the outlook for the health of the payout in the near term in the context of management’s willingness to preserve and raise the payout. Since the systematic application of the Dividend Cushion ratio across our coverage in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90% at identifying the risks of a dividend cut in advance of the event.

Nov 9, 2023

Disney’s Free Cash Flow Is Expected to Surge But A Strong Recovery Is Already Priced In
Image Source: Valuentum. On November 8, Disney reported improved fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Revenue advanced 5% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, and the firm drove non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to $0.82 from $0.30 in the prior year period. The company’s Disney+ streaming service added 7 million core customers in the quarter, and its commentary that its streaming business would reach profitability in the fourth quarter of next fiscal year was welcome. Cost savings will be key, and the executive team expects free cash flow to grow significantly in fiscal 2024 versus the most recently reported year. All of this was great news, but a massive recovery in free cash flow is already factored into its price. Our $81 fair value estimate remains unchanged.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Sep 8, 2023

Our Latest Report Updates
Check out our latest report updates on the website.

Jun 26, 2023

Latest Report Updates Concentrated in Mining & Chemicals and Healthcare Industries
In our 16-page equity research reports, we offer a fair value estimate for each company based on a rigorous and transparent discounted cash flow process, assess the attractiveness of a stock based on a firm-specific margin of safety, and provide a relative valuation comparison in the context of the company’s industry and peers. Each report includes detailed pro forma financial statements, explicit fundamental forecasts, and scenario analysis. A cross section of the ValueCreation and ValueRisk ratings provides a financial assessment of a company’s business quality (competitive position), while the ValueTrend and Economic Castle ratings offer insight into the trajectory of a firm’s economic profit creation (ROIC versus WACC). Included in each 16-page report is a company's rating on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), a methodology that combines rigorous financial and valuation analysis with an evaluation of a firm's technicals and momentum indicators to derive a score between 1 and 10 for each company (10=best). We believe the VBI methodology helps identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to consider buying, helping to avoid value traps and lagging performance due to the opportunity cost of holding a stock with great potential but at an inopportune time. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio puts the VBI into practice. Read more about the Valuentum Buying Index rating system, "Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too." Members can access our 16-page company research reports by using our 'Symbol' search box in our website header.

May 14, 2023

Disney’s 5-Year Returns Have Been Pitiful
Image: Since the beginning of 2018, Disney’s shares have fallen, while the S&P 500 has surged. Though we liked the company more recently, we no longer include shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Disney has its hands full with its feud with Florida Governor DeSantis, a weakening linear television market, and intense rivalries in the streaming market. All of this won’t be solved overnight and might even worsen. From where we stand, investors simply don’t need the complexity of the Disney story at this time, and the company’s 5-year returns tell the story of a troubled company. With shares of Disney largely fairly valued, we won’t be adding the company back to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio anytime soon.

May 12, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 12
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

May 5, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 5
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

May 4, 2023

Paramount Global Cuts Payout, Dividend Cushion Ratio Caught Another!
Image Source: Paramount Global. The Dividend Cushion ratio is not a perfect predictor of dividend health and the risks of a dividend cut, but it’s a pretty darn good one. On May 4, Paramount Global missed expectations for its first-quarter 2023 results on both the top and bottom line and cut its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per quarter (was $0.24). The company’s Dividend Cushion ratio, which considers its balance sheet as well as future expectations of free cash flow relative to future expected cash dividends paid, was -2.5 (negative 2.5). Any ratio below 1 indicates growing risk to the health of the dividend, while any materially negative (below 0) ratio indicates severe risk of a dividend cut in the longer run.