Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 28, 2023

The Energy Sector Has Had a Great Run
Image: The energy sector was the top-performing sector during 2022. Exxon Mobil's and Chevron's first-quarter 2023 results were strong but as expected. The energy sector may have another good year or two in the next five-to-seven years, but our favorite areas for long-term investors remain large cap growth and big cap tech. Let’s say the only thing you ever read about investing was the book Value Trap, and after reading it, you decided to go long large cap growth and stay away from small cap value. You would be dancing right now.

Mar 30, 2023

Dividends, Dividends, Dividends
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson shares three unique insights on dividends not commonly discussed among investors. The transcript of the video can be found in this article.

Jan 20, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 20
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Dec 22, 2022

Be Careful With Celebrity Endorsement of Investment Products
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. Have you ever wondered why so many trust the TV for financial advice or stock tips? You guessed it: It comes back to "brain science" or the concept of familiarity. When we see a celebrity or our favorite stock guru on the television, it arouses our emotions and connects us with the idea, making the experience more memorable. The brain tends to treat our favorite newscaster or celebrity as a trusted, familiar friend, and therefore we translate those feelings into expertise and a "valid" endorsement. Be sure to use caution with celebrity endorsements of investment products, however.

Dec 9, 2022

We Win Some, We Lose Some: Best Idea Exxon Mobil Expects Huge Cash Flow Growth in Coming Years
Image: Exxon Mobil has been one of the biggest contributors of alpha to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during 2022. Image: Valuentum. It would have been difficult to sit out energy during 2022 and have a good year. Though the areas of dividend growth and high-yield dividend investing have held up better than more speculative areas, energy has been a key source of alpha across our newsletter suite this year. We added Exxon Mobil mid last year, in June 2021, to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and shares have rocketed more than 60% higher during 2022 alone. We continue to like shares of Exxon Mobil and peg a per-share fair value estimate of $122 on them.

Nov 30, 2022

Great Year for (Our) High Yield Dividend Ideas! Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter!
Image: The year-to-date simulated estimated performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which continues to hold up well during 2022, while offering an attractive forward estimated dividend yield. Simulated estimated performance is calculated by Valuentum and has not been externally audited. Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. The next edition will be released December 1, 2022. Based on our estimates, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is down ~4.4% on a price-only basis so far in 2022 on an interim basis, using data from the trading session November 29 (retrieved from Seeking Alpha). By comparison, according to data from Morningstar, the Vanguard 60/40 stock/bond portfolio (VBIAX) is down more than 15% so far this year (on a price-only basis), the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) is down 26% year-to-date (on a price-only basis), while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) is down ~30% on a year-to-date basis. Each simulated newsletter portfolio at Valuentum targets a different strategy, whether long-term capital appreciation, dividend growth, income/high yield, and the like. Generally, for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, it targets long-term capital appreciation potential (not in one year or a couple years, but in the long run). During the past five years...an ETF that tracks the area of large cap growth is up more than 70%, while an ETF that tracks the area of dividend growth has advanced ~40%, an ETF that tracks small cap value is up ~17% during the past five years, while an ETF that tracks the area of the highest-yielding S&P 500 companies is up just 12% -- according to data from Morningstar. REITs, as measured by the VNQ, are up just 3% over the past five years. We nailed the call on the drawdown in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, and readers should continue to question the merits of modern portfolio theory, not merely state that now the 60/40 stock/bond is cheap (after the huge decline)! It's extremely important to continue to test whether something makes sense or not. If interest rates continue to rise, we think bond prices will continue to face pressure. Sometimes, a few of our best ideas don't work out (as in any year), but that's why we use the simulated (and diversified) Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to measure the success of the VBI. We're not a quant shop. We believe in the qualitative overlay. For example, there are highly-rated ideas that don't make the cut for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and there are low-rated ideas that find their way into the newsletter portfolio because they add a diversification benefit. Given the massive up years in the broader markets in 2019, 2020 and 2021, with the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio estimated to be down in the low-double-digits so far this year (approximately ~10%-12%, by our latest tally) -- and this estimate includes the missteps in Meta Platforms (META), PayPal (PYPL), and Disney (DIS) -- this is actually pretty awesome, in our view -- especially considering all that went wrong in other areas such as crypto, REITs, mortgage REITs, disruptive innovation stocks, Chinese equities, and the list goes on and on. A low double-digit estimated percentage decline, as that "experienced" in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio so far in 2022 after huge up years, can be viewed as just part of a long-term journey that targets capital appreciation. For context, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price was nearly halved in 1974. It's okay to time the markets a bit as we did last August, but staying engaged with investing over the long haul is a key part of the recipe for success, as it was for Berkshire investors. For readers seeking income and high yield dividend ideas, please consider subscribing to our High Yield Dividend Newsletter. 2022 hasn't been an up year for a lot of investors, but it shouldn't have been a disaster either, and we've done a really great job avoiding the worst areas. We're interested in hearing how you are using our service, so that we can continue to get better. All told, we're excited about 2023, and we hope you are too!

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Nov 3, 2022

Lumen’s Dividend Cut Highlights Effectiveness of Valuentum’s Dividend Methodology and Uniqueness of Dividend Cushion Ratio
A lot of times investors only focus on the dividend payout ratio – dividends paid per share divided by earnings per share – or free cash flow coverage of the dividend, but the balance sheet is so very important to the sustainability of the dividend, too – something that the Dividend Cushion ratio embraces but other dividend health metrics do not. For example, Lumen’s dividend payout ratio was 50% ($0.75 in dividends dividend by $1.50 in earnings per share during the first three quarters of the year), and its free cash flow was enough to cover its cash dividends paid during the first nine months of 2022, too. However, the company held a massive ~$25 billion net debt position at the end of the quarter, which pushed its Dividend Cushion ratio deep into negative territory, raising a huge red flag with respect to the sustainability of the payout. Ignoring the balance sheet both with respect to intrinsic value and dividend analysis could be a recipe for disaster.