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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 27, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 27
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Sep 20, 2023
ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions. Sep 6, 2023
Latest Report Updates Reveal Tremendous Dividend Strength at Walmart
Our latest report updates showcased one very big observation, and that was the tremendous dividend strength of Walmart. The big box retailer’s Dividend Cushion ratio is rock-solid, and improved inventory management has worked wonders on operating cash flow this year, driving it to $18.2 billion during the six months ended July 31 from $9.24 billion in the same period a year ago, all the while organized retail theft remains a huge industry-wide problem. Though shares of Walmart are widely followed and are fairly valued on the basis of our discounted cash-flow process, we stand in awe of the company’s resurgence in free cash flow generation and believe that the firm offers a nice foundation to the markets. Walmart is on a short list of entities that we’d be looking to add to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at the right price, near the lower end of our updated fair value estimate range. Aug 3, 2023
Not Expecting Much From Consumer Staples Stocks
Image: Kellogg is representative of many consumer staples stocks that have considerable net debt positions. Image Source: Kellogg’s second-quarter press release. Though consumer staples equities have shown tremendous resilience in the face of adversity and their dividend yields can make sense in certain portfolios, the group is overflowing with net debt positions, meager long-term growth prospects, and free cash flow generation that is largely absorbed by growing per-share dividend liabilities. On the other hand, big cap tech and large cap growth have tremendous net cash positions and substantial future expected free cash flow generation, paving the way for what could be considerable long-term return potential. As with the last decade, we expect cash-based sources of intrinsic value to prevail, and for that, we continue to point to big cap tech and large cap growth as areas for consideration. Jul 28, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jul 14, 2023
Positive Pricing Elasticities Continue to Power Pepsi
Image: Effective net pricing continues to be strong at Pepsi. Image Source: PepsiCo. On July 13, PepsiCo, Inc. reported excellent second-quarter 2023 results. The firm’s pricing power continues to impress as the executive team manages modest losses in organic volume with huge effective net pricing increases. We’re sticking with the high end of our fair value estimate range for Pepsi of ~$220 per share as pricing power will likely continue for as long as pricing elasticities remain positive. Apr 12, 2023
Fed Winning the Fight Against Inflation, Food-at-Home Prices Easing
Image: CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted. The 12-month percent change in the pace of inflation for all items has fallen from north of 9% in June 2022 to 5% in March 2023. Image Source: BLS. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on April 12, and it showed that the Fed is winning its fight against inflation. The CPI-U rose just 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 0.3 percentage points from the increase in February. During the past 12 months, the all-items index has advanced 5.0% before any seasonal adjustments, a level that is still higher than the Fed’s long-term target, but not one indicative of runaway inflation or a worsening of the strain on consumer budgets. Though the news is but one data point that will influence the Fed’s rate decision next meeting, we’re viewing the news positively. Apr 1, 2023
General Mills Experiencing Tremendous Pricing Power, Positive Elasticities
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Cereal maker General Mills continues to flex its pricing power. The company’s third-quarter results for its fiscal 2023, released March 23, showed a company that is raising prices almost at will and driving tremendous adjusted operating profit expansion, while organic pound volume remains essentially flat. The company continues to optimize its revenue model as it forgoes volume expansion in favor of pricing growth, and we would expect further price increases across its product line-up for some time. With adjusted operating profit surging, price elasticities remain in its favor, much to the detriment of the cash-strapped consumer, which can only expect more food-at-home inflation. Shares of General Mills yield ~2.5% at the time of this writing. Feb 19, 2023
Our Reports on Stocks in the Recession Resistant Industry
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Our reports on stocks in the Food Retailing industry can be found in this article. Reports include BUD, CL, CLX, CPB, COST, FDP, GIS, HRL, K, KDP, KHC, KMB, KO, KR, MDLZ, MKC, MO, PEP, PG, PM, SJM, TAP, TGT, TSN, WMT, CHD, SYY, ADM, LANC, CASY. Feb 13, 2023
PepsiCo's Pricing Actions Fantastic; Needs Better Free Cash Flow in 2023 to Cover 10% Dividend Hike
Image Source: PepsiCo. PepsiCo revealed tremendous product pricing power during its fourth quarter of 2022, but inflationary pressures were still present across its business operations. The beverage and snacks giant raised its dividend 10%, marking the 51st consecutive year the company has upped its payout. However, PepsiCo will have to step up its free cash flow generation during 2023 in order to cover the increased payout obligations. During 2022, for example, free cash flow came up short in covering cash dividends paid. PepsiCo also has a rather large net debt position, even as it plans to spend $1 billion in buybacks during 2023. We still like PepsiCo as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, however, and peg its fair value estimate at $187 per share. Shares yield ~2.8% at the time of this writing. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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