Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 4, 2022

ICYMI: Dividend Growth Idea Realty Income Completes Transformation, Further Expands Overseas
Image Shown: An overview of dividend growth idea Realty Income Corporation’s tenant base, though this appears to be before taking into account its recent merger with VEREIT and spinoff of its corporate office properties portfolio. Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – November 2021 IR Presentation. On November 1, Realty Income Corp completed its stock-for-stock merger with VEREIT, a deal that according to an April 2021 press release had an enterprise value of ~$50 billion. When the merger closed, shareholders of Realty Income owned ~70% of the new entity and shareholders of VEREIT owned the remainder. Realty Income is a real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) with a vast commercial property portfolio that pays out monthly dividends. We are big fans of the REIT and include Realty Income as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares of O yield ~4.0% as of this writing.

Dec 26, 2021

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Nov 12, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week November 12
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Oct 27, 2021

Digital Realty Boosts Guidance and Further Extends Growth Runway
Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 26, Digital Realty Trust posted third quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) saw its GAAP operating revenues come in at $1.1 billion (up 11% year-over-year) and its non-GAAP core funds from operations (‘FFO’) per share come in at $1.65 per share (up 7% year-over-year) last quarter. Digital Realty also increased its guidance in conjunction with its latest earnings report, which we appreciate, as that signals the REIT is growing confident that it will exit 2021 on a high note. When taking into consideration Digital Realty’s ability to tap capital markets at attractive rates (something we cover in this article), we give the REIT a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating as its adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio is near parity at 0.7, which factors in expected dividend growth over the coming years. Additionally, we give Digital Realty a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating, underpinned by its bright cash flow growth outlook. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $186 per share of DLR, well above where Digital Realty is trading at as of this writing.

Sep 9, 2021

Digital Realty Is a Stellar Income Growth Idea
Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – September 2021 IR Presentation. Digital Realty Trust is a carrier-neutral data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) that provides co-location and interconnection services. The REIT has grown its annual dividend over the past 15+ consecutive years, and we view Digital Realty as a stellar income-generation idea. As of this writing, shares of DLR yield ~2.8%. We include shares of DLR as an idea in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios. Investors have been steadily warming up to Digital Realty this year, with shares of DLR up ~23% year-to-date, and we see room for additional upside as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $186 per share of Digital Realty.

Aug 15, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Realty Income Is on the Rebound
Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – August 2021 IR Presentation. Realty Income, “The Monthly Dividend Company,” has paid out a dividend over the past 610+ consecutive months and shares of O yield a nice ~4.0% as of this writing. We are big fans of its pending merger with VEREIT and its international expansion plans as these endeavors will significantly improve both Realty Income’s growth runway and the resilience of its business model going forward. We continue to like Realty Income as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and appreciate the REIT’s latest guidance boost. On a final note, we are keeping an eye on its pending merger with VEREIT.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.