Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Ford Reports Record Third Quarter Revenue
Image Source: Ford. Looking to full-year 2025, Ford noted that its business is performing at the high end of the guidance range previously outlined in February, despite absorbing a $1 billion net tariff headwind. It also said that between 2025 and 2026, Ford expects the Novelis fire to be a headwind of $1.0 billion or less. Ford now expects full-year 2025 company adjusted EBIT of $6-$6.5 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $2-$3 billion and capital expenditures of ~$9 billion. Ford is working to navigate the Novelis fire impact as well as tariff headwinds, but record revenue speaks to resilience. Ford yields 4.3% at the time of this writing.

IBM Raises Full-Year Revenue Growth and Free Cash Flow Outlook
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to full-year 2025 expectations, IBM now expects constant currency revenue growth of more than 5%, with free cash flow now expected to be about $14 billion. IBM ended the third quarter with $14.9 billion of cash and marketable securities, up $0.1 billion from year-end 2024. Debt, including IBM Financing debt of $11.3 billion, totaled $63.1 billion, up $8.1 billion year-to-date. IBM continues to pay a regularly quarterly dividend of $1.68 per common share and has paid consecutive quarterly dividends every year since 1916. IBM is one that we’re watching closely for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, but we remain on the sidelines at this time. Shares yield 2.3% at the time of this writing.

Tesla Faces Earnings and Margin Pressure But Free Cash Flow Soars
Image Source: Tesla. Tesla’s cash flow from operations was roughly flat year-over-year at $6.24 billion and the company slowed capital spending to $2.25 billion, resulting in free cash flow of nearly $4 billion in the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $41.65 billion at the end of the quarter versus $7.7 billion in debt and finance leases, resulting in a net cash position of nearly $34 billion. Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in the quarter, up 7%, buoyed by a pull-forward in demand from the expiration of the $7,500 government tax credit. Though fourth quarter results may be pressured, the company remains a net cash rich, free cash flow generating powerhouse. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $345 per share, however, well below where shares are currently trading.

AT&T Expects Strong Free Cash Flow in Coming Years
Image Source: TradingView. AT&T reiterated its full year 2025 financial guidance. Consolidated service revenue is targeted to grow in the low-single-digit range, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow 3% or better. Free cash flow is expected in the low-to-mid $16 billion range, while adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the higher end of the $1.97-$2.07 range. The company also reiterated its 2026-2027 financial outlook. Consolidated service revenue growth is expected in the low-single-digit range annually from 2026-2027, with adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% or better annually from 2026-2027. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to accelerate to double-digit percentage growth in 2027. Free cash flow is targeted at $18+ billion and $19+ billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively. We like the free cash flow growth expectations at AT&T, but its huge net debt position keeps us on the sidelines. Shares yield 4.3% at the time of this writing.

Netflix Reports Mixed Third Quarter Results
Image Source: Netflix. Looking to the fourth quarter, Netflix expects revenue growth of 17% (16% on a currency-neutral basis) thanks in part to growth in members, pricing, and ad revenue. The company projects an operating margin of 23.9%, representing a two percentage-point improvement year-over-year. For 2025, it expects to record $45.1 billion in revenue (16% growth, 17% on a currency-neutral basis), a level that is in line with the company’s prior expectations calling for 15%-16% revenue growth (16%-17% on a currency neutral basis). Though revenue growth remains robust, Netflix now forecasts a 2025 operating margin of 29%, which is below prior expectations calling for a 30% reported operating margin due to the impact of the Brazilian tax matter. Management expects 2025 free cash flow of roughly $9 billion (+/- a few hundred million dollars), up from its prior forecast of $8-$8.5 billion. It ended the quarter with gross debt of $14.5 billion and cash of $9.3 billion.

Philip Morris’ Smoke-Free Portfolio Continues to Outperform
Image Source: Philip Morris. Philip Morris’ work to continue to grow its smoke-free business (SFB) is bearing fruit. Its SFB now accounts for 41% of total net revenues, up 2.9 percentage points from last year’s quarter. In the quarter, the company’s SFB experienced net revenue growth of 17.7% (13.9% organically) with gross profit increasing 19.5% (14.8% organically). We continue to like Philip Morris’ oral SFB, which increased 16.9% in pouch or pouch equivalents (20.2% in cans), fueled by nicotine pouches. In the U.S., for example, its nicotine pouch product line-up ZYN accelerated growth to 39% in the third quarter. Philip Morris recently increased its regular quarterly dividend by 8.9%, to $1.47 per share, or annualized $5.88 per share. Looking to 2025, net revenue is expected to grow 6%-8% on an organic basis and adjusted diluted earnings per share, excluding currency, is targeted in the range of $7.36-$7.46, up from $6.57 in 2024, up 12.8% year-over-year at the midpoint. Shares yield 3.7% at the time of this writing.

Lockheed Martin Raises 2025 Guidance
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to all of 2025, Lockheed Martin raised its guidance. Sales are now expected in the range of $74.25-$74.75 billion, up from $73.75-$74.75 billion previously. Business operating profit is targeted in the range of $6.675-$6.725 billion, up from $6.6-$6.7 billion previously. Diluted earnings per share for 2025 are expected in the range of $22.15-$22.35, up from $21.70-$22.00 previously. Cash from operations for the year is expected at $8.5 billion, while free cash flow is targeted at $6.6 billion. Lockheed Martin’s board authorized the repurchase of its common stock up to an additional $2 billion, increasing the total authorization for potential future stock buybacks to $9.1 billion. The company raised its dividend payment to $3.45 per share, up 5% over its prior quarterly dividend payout. We continue to like Lockheed Martin as a holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Taiwan Semiconductor Looks to Strong Q4
Image Source: TSMC. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor’s revenue is expected to be between $32.2-$33.4 billion, with gross margin expected to be between 59%-61% and its operating margin targeted in the range of 49%-51%. At the end of the third quarter, cash and investments totaled $90.1 billion, while bonds payable and bank loans came in at $31.4 billion. We like TSMC’s pure-play foundry business model, and trends continue to look favorable for the chip maker.

ASML Holding’s Net Bookings Beat Expectations
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML expects total net sales between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, the midpoint above the consensus forecast, and a gross margin between 51%-53%. For the full year 2025, total net sales are targeted to increase around 15% relative to 2024, with a gross margin around 52%. The company pays an interim dividend of €1.60 per ordinary share and repurchased around €148 million worth of shares in the third quarter. We like the momentum behind ASML’s business and continue to include shares in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 17
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.