Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 25, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 25
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

Feb 12, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 12
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Sep 9, 2020

Our Thoughts on the Widespread Launch of 5G Services
Image Shown: The evolution of wireless networks and telecommunications technology over the years. Image Source: Intel Corporation – November 2019 State of 5G Presentation. The rollout of 5G telecommunication networks is upon us and we want to draw our members' attention to some of the key companies with meaningful exposure to this space. Many are excited about what opportunities 5G technology could enable. To ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic we prefer large-cap tech companies with pristine balance sheets, quality cash flow profiles, and firms whose growth outlooks are underpinned by secular growth tailwinds. Between Broadcom and Qualcomm, we are keeping a closer eye on Qualcomm given its more manageable net debt load and the company’s aforementioned near-term catalysts.

Sep 8, 2020

General Motors Makes a Deal with Nikola
Image Shown: On September 8, shares of General Motors Corporation (in orange) and Nikola Corporation (in blue) jumped higher during normal trading hours after announcing their strategic partnership. On September 8, General Motors and Nikola Corp announced a strategic partnership that saw shares of GM and NKLA leap up 8% and 41% during regular trading hours that day, respectively. General Motors will receive an 11% equity stake in Nikola (via common stock issuance) worth ~$2 billion in return for agreeing to provide Nikola in-kind services as “General Motors will engineer, homologate, validate and manufacture the Nikola Badger battery electric and fuel cell versions” which involves utilizing General Motors’ “Ultium battery system and Hydrotec fuel cell technology.” General Motors expects the agreement will close by the end of this month. There will be a lock-up provision concerning General Motors’ pro forma equity stake in Nikola that is set to run through June 2025. Nikola expects this agreement will save the firm ~$5 billion in battery, powertrain, engineering, and validation costs combined over the next decade as the company gains “access to General Motors' global safety-tested and validated parts and components” along with General Motors’ hydrogen fuel cell and electric battery technology.

Sep 1, 2020

Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information.

Jul 7, 2020

Tesla Surges on Promising Production Report
Image Shown: Shares of Tesla Inc have more than tripled year-to-date, as of this writing, due to growing optimism about the electric vehicle and battery maker’s long-term growth outlook. On July 2, Tesla Inc provided an update on the number of electric vehicles it produced and delivered during the second quarter of 2020, when its domestic manufacturing capabilities were hit the hardest by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. This report likely acted as the catalyst for the latest run up in shares of TSLA as its technicals have "gone parabolic" of late.

Jun 16, 2020

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks
Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. In addition to unlimited quantitative easing and "whatever it takes, squared" Fed policy, today, June 16, the Trump administration announced that it is weighing a $1 trillion stimulus bill to help support the economy. While uncertainties remain regarding specifics of the bill (it might include state assistance, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.), the move is consistent with the outsize spending we expect to further bolster the bull case, "ICYMI -- Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." We continue to emphasize that, in light of unlimited QE and runaway fiscal stimulus, the longer-duration components of intrinsic values are expanding considerably, and as a result, fair values, themselves, are actually rising during this recession and pandemic [a good estimate of the value of the S&P 500 today may be between 3,530-3,920, as outlined in the following: "Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes.]."

Jun 15, 2020

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected
Image: The market's levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum's text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. This week is setting up to be yet another volatile week of trading, but nothing too surprising. We've talked extensively about outsize levels of volatility in the book Value Trap, and many of our predictions regarding the magnitude of volatility have come to fruition, as described in this note here. But as we've also noted in Value Trap, we don't think increased volatility is a transient development. The Fed and Treasury have only further emboldened price-agnostic trading (indexing/quant) with recent bailout actions, and volatility and momentum funds, which exacerbate the swings, will only grow as a percentage of trading volumes. The magnitude of market volatility during the COVID-19 crisis has certainly been immense. During March for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had 8 consecutive days with a 4% move in either direction (this is the first time in history this happened--not even during the tumultuous times of the Crash of 1929 or Black Monday of 1987 or the Great Financial Crisis did this happen). Intra-day volatility has also been considerable, and it has become commonplace for equity futures to swing wildly before market open. Now, more than ever, investors need a steady hand at the wheel.