Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Dec 20, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Dec 14, 2023

Brief Note: Just How Good Has Our Stock Selection Been?
Has anyone really done better than this? We hope you have benefited greatly!

Nov 30, 2023

Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse Salesforce Has a Long Growth Runway
Image Source: Salesforce. On November 29, Salesforce reported excellent fiscal third-quarter results and issued an outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter that came in better than expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average component’s results were welcome news as the bellwether revealed that spending on cloud-based CRM software remains robust. In the quarter ending October 31, revenue advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at a solid $2.11. Its outlook was rosier than what the Street was expecting. For the fiscal fourth quarter, the company is targeting non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $2.25-$2.26 per share, better than the consensus forecast of $2.18. The strong quarter only increases our confidence in Salesforce’s longer-term outlook, and we plan to raise our fair value estimate of the firm upon our next report update.

Nov 29, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report refreshes on the website.

Oct 31, 2023

3 Mid Caps With Net Cash And Strong Free Cash Flow
Image: Chewy's best-in-class customer service is paying off in strong free cash flow generation. We're huge fans of companies with net cash on their balance sheet and strong free cash flow generating potential. This view has led us to favor the areas of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth in the newsletter portfolios, but there are other companies emerging with similar economics on a smaller scale. Chewy, Inc. E.L.F Beauty and DocuSign are three that come to mind, and all three of these names boast a strong balance sheet and favorable free cash flow dynamics. Each of these companies is also benefiting from secular growth trends as they seek to gain market share against rivals. Though certainly not without valuation risk as the trajectory of free cash flow expectations will certainly cause volatility in their respective stocks, we think all three may be worthy of consideration for the aggressive, risk-seeking investor targeting long-term capital appreciation.

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Jul 20, 2023

Stock Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.