Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Sep 13, 2023

Apple’s Big “Wonderlust” Event Is Business as Usual
Image Source: Apple. Apple Inc. hosted its widely-anticipated “Wonderlust” event. The market was anticipating several new products, and Apple delivered. The firm’s iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15, Apple Watch Series 9, and Apple Watch Ultra 2 will go a long way to retaining share in smartphones and wearable devices, but the company opted to leave prices unchanged. Many had been expecting a price increase, but we’re not reading too much into Apple’s decision to leave them unchanged, given economic uncertainty in the U.S., Huawei’s release of its latest phone (the Mate 60 Pro), and rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.

Aug 11, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 11
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Apr 11, 2023

Not Worried About Global PC Demand Weakness
Image Source: IDC. On April 9, International Data Corporation (IDC) issued preliminary findings for the first quarter of 2023 for global personal computer (PC) shipments in its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results were a bit surprising, with the firm noting that “weak demand, excess inventory, and a worsening macroeconomic climate were all contributing factors for the precipitous drop in shipments of traditional PCs during the first quarter of 2023.” According to the IDC report, global PC shipments fell 29% to 56.9 million compared to the first quarter of 2022. Apple experienced the biggest year-over-year percentage decline, where shipments fell more than 40%. Dell Technologies, Lenovo and ASUS experienced declines greater than 30%, while HP Inc. and a basket of other PC makers witnessed declines in the mid-20% range. Channel inventory remains elevated, and investors should expect more discounting from the PC makers, as the industry continues to optimize the supply chain amid pre-COVID and post-COVID demand dynamics.

Apr 10, 2023

Taiwan Semiconductor Experiences Revenue Weakness in March
Image: Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares have rallied nicely since the beginning of November of last year. Taiwan Semiconductor reported March revenue on April 10. During the month, net revenue dropped nearly 11% on a sequential basis and more than 15% on a year-over-year basis from March 2022. Though the top-line weakness in the month was somewhat of a surprise, the company’s revenue advanced 3.6% during the first quarter of this year.

Mar 14, 2023

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Dec 4, 2022

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong
Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe. Apple's sales of the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will come in lower than expected this holiday season due to labor unrest in Zhengzhou, but holiday sales for 2022 overall look fairly solid with Adobe Analytics estimating 2.5% growth over 2021, which, itself, was a fantastic year. A prior warning about holiday sales from Target Corp. appears to have been overblown given the sales strength witnessed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday across the retail landscape this year. It may be too early to say that the markets have definitely bottomed as economic data remains inconclusive, but holiday sales so far in 2022 and an overall resilient job market are giving investors something to cheer about in what has turned into an otherwise loathsome year.

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 13, 2022

ASML Launches Big Buyback; Lithography Systems Well Positioned for Demand Growth
Image: ASML has been one of the most successful semiconductor companies thanks in part to the firm’s advanced lithography systems that continue to meet customer demands for size and cost efficiencies. Image Source: ASML. We think ASML Holding is in a sweet spot in the semiconductor space as its lithography systems position the industry well along the path of Moore’s Law. Strong past investments have given it a leadership position, and we expect ASML to capture a significant amount of its addressable market from smartphones to personal computing and beyond, all the while it pays a dividend and buys back stock along the way. A continued focus on research & development and capital spending, while maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet should be expected. The firm’s recent Investor Day was a positive catalyst for shares and eased the worst of the concerns regarding the intermediate-term impact of Sino-American tensions on the semiconductor space. We continue to like shares of ASML Holding.