Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jun 1, 2020

June Dividend Growth Newsletter & Intrinsic Value Investing
"But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] "attractive"? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: "value" and "growth,"...We view that as fuzzy thinking...Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term "value investing" is redundant." -- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992

Aug 28, 2018

ETF Analysis: Energy
Energy sector ETFs offer a diversified way to capture the potential for higher crude oil prices without being exposed to the capital budget decisions of any one operator.

May 17, 2018

Master Limited Partnership Simplifications on the Rise
With the announcement of three separate master limited partnership simplification transactions on May 17 alone, we must revisit our thesis that the business structure may not be in it for the long haul.

Nov 30, 2017

Charting Cash Flow and Net Debt -- The Oil Majors
Image Source: Valuentum. Traditional free cash flow generation has been strong for the oil majors through the first nine months of the year, but their balance sheets remain bloated with net debt. A few haven't covered their cash dividends with free cash flow generation through the first nine months of 2017.

Feb 23, 2016

Recent Add Cracker Barrel Surges Ahead; BHP Cuts
We liked what we heard in Cracker Barrel’s outlook, and the Dividend Cushion ratio again comes up big in warning about BHP’s dividend cut.

Jan 24, 2016

General Electric’s Results Remain “Messy”
General Electric will soon be a fraction of its former self, and while we like the refocus, its portfolio transformation has muddied its financials to an unprecedented degree.

Jun 18, 2015

5 More Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse
“...the credit rating agencies have a lot to think about. Kinder Morgan’s investment-grade credit rating is in part supported by the firm’s ability to access the equity markets to sell its own stock. But its share price is artificially propped up by the incorrect application of dividend discount models that are using financially-engineered dividends, which themselves are in part supported by the debt raised from an investment-grade credit rating, which is then used to keep raising debt and growing the dividend…and so on."

Jun 11, 2015

5 Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse
Let's walk through a handful of reasons why the company’s shares may very well collapse.

Jan 23, 2015

3 Reasons Why We Like Kinder Morgan
Valuentum's Brian Nelson discusses three reasons why Kinder Morgan is included in the Dividend Growth portfolio.