Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 17, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Dec 19, 2023

In the News: Google, McDonald’s, Costco, Apple
Image: McDonald’s has released a new beverage concept, and it looks to be a hit. Image Source: CosMcs. The market continues to ebb and flow with the latest Federal Reserve commentary, but we continue to be fans of the strong foundation that is the U.S. employment market and the great promise of artificial intelligence [AI] as key themes for 2024. We're huge fans of the net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses found in big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. We expect these two areas to continue to lead the markets higher, if not in 2024, through the better part of this decade. Let's take a look at some of the latest news at Alphabet, McDonald's, Costco, and Apple.

Dec 15, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 15
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Dec 3, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report refreshes on the website.

Nov 16, 2023

Concerns Over Walmart’s Outlook Overblown
Image: Walmart’s free cash flow generation during the first nine months of its fiscal year has shown a nice jump. On November 16, Walmart reported third quarter results for fiscal 2024 that showed revenue growth of 5.2% and adjusted operating income expansion of 3%. Adjusted earnings per share nudged up 2% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. Operating cash flow during the first nine months of the year came in at $19 billion (up $3.3 billion from the year ago period), while free cash flow came in at $4.3 billion (up $0.7 billion on a year-over-year basis). The big box retailer ended the period with a ~$43.2 billion net debt position and has bought back 8.7 million shares of stock on a year-to-date basis. Walmart raised its outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2024, but its targets came in a bit shy of expectations. With shares trading down following the report, we think the market is overreacting. We won’t be making any changes to our $160 per share fair value estimate.

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 27, 2023

In the News: McDonald’s, Costco, Target
The market is once again worried about a potential government shutdown in the U.S., beginning on Sunday, as Congress works on a budget for fiscal 2024 through the rest of September. This recurring news has been a seasonal part of the market’s jitters every few years or so, however, and we’re not worried about what we would describe as an overhyped risk. A potential government shutdown in the U.S., if it happens, will inevitably be resolved, and while it tends to make for scary media headlines, it just doesn’t factor into the thesis of long-term investors. We don’t think readers should overreact.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.