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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Dec 4, 2022
Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong
Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe. Apple's sales of the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will come in lower than expected this holiday season due to labor unrest in Zhengzhou, but holiday sales for 2022 overall look fairly solid with Adobe Analytics estimating 2.5% growth over 2021, which, itself, was a fantastic year. A prior warning about holiday sales from Target Corp. appears to have been overblown given the sales strength witnessed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday across the retail landscape this year. It may be too early to say that the markets have definitely bottomed as economic data remains inconclusive, but holiday sales so far in 2022 and an overall resilient job market are giving investors something to cheer about in what has turned into an otherwise loathsome year.
Nov 22, 2022
Dick’s Sporting Goods Defies Skeptics, Puts Up Strong Comp Performance in Fiscal Third Quarter
Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods is the premiere sporting goods retailer, and the firm’s performance during its recently reported fiscal third quarter showed a key inflection point in same-store-sales growth. Image Source: Dick’s Sporting Goods. On November 22, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported fiscal third quarter results for the period ending October 29 that beat expectations on both the top and bottom line, but the real story was the sporting good retailer’s same-store sales performance, which far exceeded the consensus expectation for the period. With a forward estimated dividend yield of ~1.8% and a solid Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.3, Dick’s Sporting Goods remains one of our favorite ideas within the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.
Nov 21, 2022
Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead
Image Source: Valuentum. Both Walmart and Target indicated that discretionary spending may face some pressure heading into the holiday season. Strength in beauty, skin care, and cosmetics may not be enough to cushion the blow that home electronics, sporting goods retailers, and toy makers may face. Though incrementally more positive than we were a few months ago, we remain cautious/defensive on the markets. In light of the tremendous weakness share prices have faced so far this year, we think the market had been anticipating the current slowdown, as retailers continue to adjust to a more difficult economic environment. We continue to wait to see how Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers shake out to get an incrementally better read on how holiday numbers may pan out, which will have far-reaching implications across the retail and logistics landscapes.
Sep 30, 2022
Nike’s Fundamental Backdrop Speaks of Serious Impending Global Recession
Image Source: Raul Gonzalez. Nike’s share price has been roughly cut in half this year, and its fundamental backdrop speaks of a serious impending global recession, in our view. Weak revenue performance, lower gross margins, bloated inventory, and significant troubles in China suggest even tougher times are ahead. Nike is a not included in any of the simulated newsletter portfolios, and we’d be cautious on it as well as the broader retailing industry as the U.S. enters what could be a deep recession in 2023. Things are going to get worse before they get better.
Aug 25, 2022
Dividend Growth Idea Dick’s Sporting Goods Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc have been on a nice upward climb of late. The sporting goods retailer raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2022 during its fiscal second quarter earnings report. On August 23, Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended July 30, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The sporting goods retailer also raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2022 in conjunction with the report, after previously lowering its guidance during its fiscal first quarter earnings update in May 2022. We continue to like Dick’s Sporting Goods as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares of DKS yield ~1.8% as of this writing when looking at its regular quarterly payout. The company has also paid out special dividends in the recent past, including a $5.50 per share special dividend in fiscal 2021 along with a $2.00 per share special dividend back in fiscal 2012.
Jul 19, 2022
Dick’s Sporting Goods Facing Revenue “Normalization,” Long-Term Story In Tact
Image Source: Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Infographic. Inflationary pressures, labor shortages, and supply chain hurdles are all weighing negatively on Dick’s Sporting Goods’ near term outlook. The retailer’s net cash position and strong cash flow generating abilities should help see it through this period of revenue “normalization,” and its longer term growth runway remains robust (underpinned by new store concepts, the potential for meaningful unit store count growth, ongoing customer loyalty and digital initiatives, and various in-store product layout optimization efforts). We continue to like Dick’s Sporting Goods as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares of DKS yield ~2.2% as of this writing, and we see ample room for the retailer to push through substantial dividend increases over the long haul.
Jun 28, 2022
Nike’s Gross Margin Falls, Inventory Leaps in Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022
Image Source: Valuentum. Nike CEO John Donahoe may have said it best in its fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 press release: “Nike’s results this fiscal year are a testament to the unmatched strength of our brands and our deep connection with consumers. Our competitive advantages, including our pipeline of innovative product and expanding digital leadership, prove that our strategy is working as we create value through our relentless drive to serve the future of sport.” What more can we say about this great company. We like its financials quite a bit, fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings came in better than expected, the company is navigating supply chain issues, inflationary pressures, and weakness in Greater China quite well, and it just launched a new massive buyback program to take advantage of its underpriced stock. Nike boasts an impressive Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.8, and we’re reiterating our $139 per share fair value estimate on shares. Shares yield ~1.1% at the time of this writing.
Apr 6, 2022
Lululemon Firing on All Cylinders; Shares Recovering
Image Shown: Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc are recovering in the wake of the company’s recent earnings report. On March 29, Lululemon Athletica Inc reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended January 30, 2022) that matched consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. Lululemon also announced it had initiated a new $1.0 billion stock buyback program after completing its previous program in the first quarter of fiscal 2022. The company issued favorable guidance for fiscal 2022 during its latest earnings update, which helped drive shares of LULU sharply higher during normal trading hours on March 30. Shares of LULU are up more than 20% during the past 52 weeks through the time of this writing, more than doubling the return of the S&P 500 during that time. We value shares north of $400 each at the time of this writing, revealing significant potential upside should price-to-fair value estimate convergence materialize.
Mar 29, 2022
Nike Holding Its Own Against Major Exogenous Shocks
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc are on an upward climb again after dropping significantly from November 2021 to March 2022. Nike is holding its own in the face of major exogenous headwinds. The firm’s pivot towards D2C and digital sales are having a powerful impact on its business and underlying financial performance. We appreciate that Nike is a stellar generator of shareholder value, though we caution that inflationary headwinds and supply chain hurdles loom large over its near term outlook, as does the Ukraine-Russia crisis due to rising fuel expenses and the risk that portions of the global economy (particularly developing and emerging markets) may enter a recession. We continue to be bullish on U.S. equities and the domestic economy.
Dec 27, 2021
Nike Beats Estimates in the Face of Supply Chain Constraints
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc shifted higher in the wake of its latest earnings report. On December 20, Nike reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended November 30, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company did its best to navigate supply chain hurdles as efforts by public health officials and governments to contain the spread of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic in Southeast Asia (a major production hub for apparel and footwear) weighed quite negatively on its ability to meet demand.


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