Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 18, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 18
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 17, 2022

Cisco Posts Great Earnings Update; Increases Dividend and Share Buyback Authority
Image Shown: Cisco Systems Inc is a very shareholder friendly company. Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 16, Cisco Systems reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended January 29, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of CSCO surged higher initially after its earnings were made public as the company offered up promising near term guidance, indicating that its positive momentum seen of late is expected to continue. We include shares of CSCO as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Cisco announced a 3% sequential increase in its quarterly dividend in conjunction with its latest earnings update, bringing it up to $0.38 per share or $1.52 per share on an annualized basis. The company also announced it had increased its share repurchasing capacity by $15 billion, bringing its total repurchasing capacity up to ~$18 billion. Shares of CSCO yield ~2.8% as of this writing at its new payout level, and we view its dividend strength as rock-solid due to its pristine balance sheet and stellar free cash flows. Our fair value estimate for Cisco sits at $62 per share with room for upside as the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $74 per share. That is meaningfully above where shares of CSCO are trading at as of this writing (~$56 per share each), and we view the company’s capital appreciation upside potential quite favorably.

Feb 10, 2022

Top ESG Idea South32 Getting Closer to Launching Major Mining Project in Arizona
Image Shown: South32 is targeting ample zinc, lead, and silver resources at the Hermosa project in Arizona that could be quite economical to extract should the Australian-based miner move forward with the endeavor. Image Source: South32 – January 2022 IR Presentation. Shares of South32, one of our favorite miners, are up over 50% during the past year as of this writing and that is before taking dividend considerations into account. The Australian miner has a bright outlook after shedding virtually all its thermal coal assets last calendar year (completed in June 2021) and announcing in October 2021 that it would acquire a sizable economic interest in a Chilean copper mine. We include shares of SOUHY as an idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio and continue to be huge fans of the company. The miner has ample exposure to the “green energy” revolution and continues to pivot towards minerals that are expected to be in high demand in the future, which in turn supports the firm’s cash flow growth runway. South32 has exposure to attractive potential mining opportunities down in Arizona and recently provided a big update on these efforts that are worth going over. Let's dig in.

Feb 7, 2022

Sonos Expected to Continue Growing Rapidly; Margin Concerns Remain Key Issue
Image Source: Sonos Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Sonos' financial performance staged an impressive turnaround in fiscal 2021. The company exited fiscal 2021 with a $640 million net cash position and generated $208 million in free cash flow that fiscal year. Sonos is leveraging its financial strength by buying back its stock. The firm is also considering potential M&A activities that could be used to enhance its growth runway, with an eye towards the potential for Sonos to expand into the premium wireless headphone space. Sonos forecasts that it will grow its revenues by double-digits annually in fiscal 2022, though its margins are expected to face moderate headwinds this fiscal year. Shares of SONO have faced sizable selling pressures of late as concerns mount over its medium-term outlook. We love the company's products, but we're cautious on the stock in the near-term given its cloudy EBITDA outlook. That said, we see potential upside in the stock to the high-$20s from a valuation perspective (modestly above where shares are trading at this time).

Feb 5, 2022

Our Thoughts on Big Pharma’s Calendar Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports
Image Source: Merck & Company Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We include the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF in the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios to gain broad exposure to the health care sector. Instead of betting on one entity's pipeline (which could be hit or miss), we like the exposure to lots and lots of "shots on goal" when it comes to the vast collective pipeline in the XLV ETF. We wrote up the calendar fourth-quarter results of the top two weightings in the XLV ETF, United Health and Johnson & Johnson recently. We continue to like UNH a lot, but JNJ's story has become a lot more complicated for dividend growth investors in recent months. Let's have a look at some of the other key holdings in the XLV ETF, however. We'll cover the calendar fourth-quarter earnings reports from four heavyweights in the pharmaceutical arena (ABBV, GILD, LLY, and MRK). Additionally, we'll cover the performance of some of their top-selling treatments that have already received regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (‘FDA’) and key clinical trials that could produce new commercial growth opportunities. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has become more manageable during the past year or so after several vaccines and therapeutics for the virus were discovered in record time. While headwinds from the pandemic remain, the health care sector is steadily recovering and this space is home to plenty of attractive opportunities for capital appreciation and income seeking investors. XLV, UNH, JNJ, and VRTX are a few that we like a lot.

Feb 4, 2022

Undervalued PINS, SNAP Rallying; FB Incredibly Mispriced, and Refreshed Consumer Discretionary Reports
Image: Valuentum's Periodic Screener, February 4. Two of the most undervalued stocks in our coverage Pinterest, Inc. and Snap Inc. are indicated to rally hard February 4 after issuing positive earnings reports, providing further evidence of the importance of the discounted cash flow process and the magnet that intrinsic value estimates are to stock prices.

Feb 3, 2022

Preliminary Updated Summary Valuations for Meta Platforms and PayPal Holdings
The refreshed stock reports for Meta and PayPal will be available this weekend.

Feb 3, 2022

The Facebook (Meta Platforms) Thesis Just Got Even More Complicated
Image: Facebook’s free cash flow generation remains robust. Image Source: Meta Earnings Presentation Q4 2021. The company formerly known as Facebook, Meta Platforms is facing a long list of headwinds from moderating revenue growth, tightening margins, slowing free cash flow expansion due to rising capital spending, and tail risks of the regulatory and antitrust variety. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimate of Meta upon the next update to factor in these dynamics, but we still believe shares are undervalued.

Feb 3, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Growing Robustly
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Qualcomm Inc posted a solid earnings update and provided promising near term guidance on February 2. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 2, dividend growth idea Qualcomm reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended December 26, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The semiconductor company issued guidance for the current fiscal quarter that calls for double-digit revenue and earnings growth versus fiscal year-ago levels, though shares of QCOM still dipped modestly in after-hours trading that day. We continue to like Qualcomm as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the firm remains a free cash flow cow with a promising growth outlook.

Feb 3, 2022

PayPal’s Margin Pressure, Flattish Earnings Outlook Shocks Market; Fair Value Estimate Reduced
Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc grew at a robust pace in 2021 though its margin outlook is not as promising as once believed. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 earnings press release. PayPal is a solid enterprise supported by its pristine balance sheet, strong free cash flows, and promising revenue growth outlook. The proliferation of e-commerce provides PayPal will a powerful secular tailwind to capitalize on. However, PayPal’s operating leverage is not what it once appeared to be, and that weighs negatively on its margin expansion potential. As noted previously, we have fine-tuned our cash flow valuation model on the company, and now value shares at $160 on a point fair value estimate basis. We continue to include PayPal as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio for the time being (as we evaluate the next few quarters). PayPal's refreshed stock page and report will be available shortly.