Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Sep 20, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 20
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Sep 16, 2019

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, “Quac-cidental Correlation,” and Economic Moats
Image Source: Anders Sandberg. Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain factors, while others are saying that many were forced to deleverage. We’re not so sure, and we think it may be the opposite: after years of suffering from lagging “value” returns, we think several quant shops stepped in to take on leverage, betting on a return to “value.” Let's talk about last week's quant quake, spurious correlations (the “guac-cidental correlation, in fact), economic moats and much more.

Sep 11, 2019

Economic Roundtable: “Value” Versus “Growth” Rotation
“This kind of trading activity could be setting the stage for a big quant fund blow up, if the kind of leverage it takes to move the markets to this magnitude was applied. All it may take is for the B/M “value” factor to continue to suffer in the coming 12-18 months--it’s possible we could see a few quant firms go belly up. My guess is that market participants are paying very close attention to this activity, and if they “smell blood,” things could get ugly.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Sep 5, 2019

Valuentum’s Economic Roundtable: Trade War, Factors and Beyond
The markets rallied hard September 5 on relief that the US and China will go back to the negotiations table next month. This back-and-forth news cycle is enough to give any investor whiplash. Let’s catch up with the Valuentum Team on the latest developments, not only with the trade war but also with respect to factor investing, possible bubbles and beyond.

Sep 4, 2019

The "Hierarchy" of Valuentum Idea Generation
Image: The Valuentum Buying Index rating scale.Let's talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note.

Aug 13, 2019

Thought Piece: The Hidden Advantage
Image Source: Kamilla Oliveira. As activist investing proliferates, investors are becoming more and more familiar with celebrity investing gurus such as Carl Icahn and David Einhorn. Let’s examine how these investing giants have carved out a unique structural advantage over mom-and-pop investors. This article was originally published in June 2014.

Aug 11, 2019

In the News: Amazon, GE, Kraft-Heinz, Disney, CVS Health, Gilead
We're reiterating the large range of fair value outcomes for Amazon. We're staying far away from General Electric and Kraft-Heinz. Netflix may have its back against the ropes with Disney Plus. CVS Health and Gilead were two setbacks in the newsletter portfolios in the past, but we kept losses to a minimum and new ideas more than offset the weakness. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to do very well.

Aug 7, 2019

Join the Conversation on the Market Plunge
The Valuentum team shares its thoughts on the recent surge in volatility and collapse in interest rates amid a trade and currency war between two of the largest economies in the world, the US and China.

Jul 19, 2019

In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Marches On
We like what we saw out of a few industrial names, including Honeywell, Danaher and Dover. We thought Taiwan Semi’s report was okay, and Philip Morris continues to navigate declining cigarette volumes. We include our thoughts on some of the mid-size banks.

Jul 19, 2019

Pounding the Table on Bank of America
Image Source: Bank of America 2Q19 Earnings Presentation. Bank of America can be bought for a valuation that reflects the bank as if it were to stand still, even though it is steadily going after the competition and improving its own efficiency and return on capital metrics. We may look to add Bank of America to the newsletter portfolios.