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Jun 26, 2019
Another Pharmaceutical Giant Is Born
Image Source: AbbVie Inc – IR Presentation. The combination of AbbVie and Allergan seems to have been born out of the need to do something, anything, considering how dependent AbbVie is on Humira and Allergan is on Botox. We find the transaction interesting as it ties into our view that Big Pharma will continue getting bigger and bigger while the field gets smaller, but this doesn’t change on view on either Allergan or AbbVie. We aren’t considering shares of either company at this time. Jun 25, 2019
Visa, Concentration Bets and Facebook's Gift
Image: In late December, we increased the position in Facebook (FB) while shares were in the mid-$130s. The stock is up huge since then. Jun 24, 2019
Value Trap Is Winning And So Are You!
Image: Value Trap received acclaim at the prestigious Next Generation Indie Awards at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington DC. Shown: Value Trap at the American Library Association conference Headline Books booth June 22. Jun 21, 2019
Renewing Our Interest In Boston Properties
Image Source: Boston Properties Inc – IR Presentation. Boston Properties focuses on developing, owning, and operating Class A (or top tier) corporate office properties in a select few markets. The REIT sports good payout coverage on FFO terms and raised its guidance for 2019 but watch out for its hefty leverage. During the Great Recession, Boston Properties was forced to cut its regular dividend as credit conditions tightened. Jun 16, 2019
Valuentum's June Best Ideas Newsletter
Image: Page 49, June edition of American Library Association Booklist."I hope that my book Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation marks a turning point in the financial research industry. To you and me, 1) looking forward, 2) understanding that stock values are based on future expectations, and 3) calculating intrinsic value is simply par for the course. If other investors are not doing this, it should be no surprise that they are failing miserably. 90% underperformance! I hope my book serves as a wake up call for readers to demand forward-looking analysis and research that calculates a best fair value estimate." -- Brian Nelson, CFA Jun 14, 2019
Broadcom Plummets After Cutting Guidance
Image Source: Florian Knodt. Broadcom resets investor expectations, sending shares of the company and peers lower. Broadcom sports a juicy yield. Jun 14, 2019
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending June 14
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week. Jun 13, 2019
RYAM: Terrible Business, Potentially Cheap Stock
Image Source: First-Quarter 2019 Presentation Materials. Rayonier Advanced Materials has seen better days, but has the market overreacted? We don’t think there are many businesses that have poorer industry structure, but if the company can get things back on track, normalized free cash flow indicates substantial upside potential. Commodity prices and tariffs remain big wild cards to this story, and the Valuentum investor always waits for technicals and momentum indicators to turn decidedly positive first. Jun 11, 2019
The United Technologies-Raytheon Merger Will Create a Defense and Commercial Aerospace Giant
Image Source: United Technologies' IR Presentation. While there are many hurdles United Technologies and Raytheon must vault before their proposed merger of equals gets approved, we see this deal leading to material cost savings which will drive significant free cash flow growth in the medium term. The company expects to generate $6.0 billion in pro forma free cash flow this year, and management forecasts that could rise to $8.0 billion by 2021. Jun 11, 2019
Beyond Meat’s Market: $5 Billion or $1.5 Trillion?
Image: The Beyond Burger accounted for about 70% of the company’s sales in 2018. Source: S-1. The big question: how big is Beyond Meat’s opportunity? Is it $5 billion or $1.5 trillion?
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