Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 18, 2015

The Fed Freezes; Outlook as Bad as Feared or Worse?
The global economy may be far worse than even some pessimists believe, as the need for a continued ZIRP (zero interest-rate policy) remains the Fed’s tactic, at least for now.

Sep 15, 2015

As the World Turns
We’re keeping our eyes on a number of things. First, we’re monitoring property prices in Shanghai and in other larger Chinese cities to assess the potential calamity that falling housing prices and deflation would have on the country’s banking sector and the likelihood of contagion via the British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the US ones, namely Citigroup and JP Morgan. Second, we’re watching the price of crude oil closely, as its fall will have huge implications on the earnings trajectory of companies that benefit (airlines, restaurants) as well as the ones that suffer (upstream and energy services). The net effect of falling crude oil prices has thus far been negative for S&P 500 earnings, but this may change as the energy sector becomes an ever-smaller part of index construction. Third, who can forget about the Fed, the expected duration of any tightening monetary cycle, and the resulting implications on dividend-paying stocks as Treasury yields rise?

Sep 2, 2015

Extreme Volatility in Crude Oil Prices Continues
Saudi Arabia remains undeterred, China weakness spreads, and EIA inventories suggest we’re still awash in crude.

Sep 1, 2015

Batten Down the Hatches – Another US Market Crash Probable
The aftermath of China’s equity market collapse and the Dow’s crash last week will have material spillover effects.

Aug 28, 2015

3 Observations
The wild week that ended August 28, 2015.

Aug 24, 2015

The Debt Bubble Is Deflating; Will It Pop?
"What remains to be seen, from our perspective, is whether the collapse in the mining and energy sectors and the crisis in emerging-market currencies will eventually lead to yet another credit crisis, similar to the one that shocked the world in 2008-2009 and brought some well-known names to their knees across the financial sector." -- inside this piece

Jul 30, 2015

The Story of Chemical Giants: Sales Down, Margins Up
Chemical bellwethers’ second-quarter results reflect the impact of unfavorable commodity prices and demand. The agricultural environment remains challenging.

Jul 10, 2015

Creditor Risk Aversion Rises Considerably in Energy, Metals & Mining Sectors
In a recent Moody’s ‘Capital Markets Research’ report, according to a tabulation performed by Credit Suisse, bond spreads have widened an incredible 385 basis points for high-yield metals/minerals companies and 367 basis points for energy companies in the one-year period ending July 8, 2015. We continue to underweight these sectors within the newsletter portfolios. Creditor risk aversion continues to swell in these two sectors, and the worst has yet to come, in our view.

Jun 13, 2015

Friday Evening News
Let’s wind down with a quick wrap up of some key events and news releases from the week.

Jun 10, 2015

No Fly Zone: Airlines’ Economic Profitability Still Unproven
Despite projections of the industry generating a positive economic profit for the first time in history, we don’t like the long-term investment prospects of airlines.