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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Oct 22, 2019
We Like Union Pacific But Shares Aren’t Cheap
Image Source: 3rd Quarter Earnings Slides. Though Union Pacific continues to navigate a tumultuous demand environment, particularly as it relates to the energy end market, the rails remain a key and indispensable part of North American infrastructure. Union Pacific offers a nice yield relative to peers, and its free cash flow generation remains solid thanks to brilliant execution on the operating line, as evidenced by an all-time best quarterly operating ratio. The only issue holding us back on Union Pacific remains its valuation. We’d have to see shares come in considerably for us to get interested. Our fair value estimate of Union Pacific stands at $142, while shares trade hands north of $170 these days.
Oct 22, 2019
Ford Provides an Update on Its Self-Driving Plans
Image Source: Ford Motor Company – 2018 Annual Report. Ford reiterated that the goal is to begin commercializing its autonomous driving investments starting in 2021 via a self-driving service, likely something akin to a fleet of taxi cabs with built-in autonomous driving equipment and software. Self-driving taxi cab services could in theory create substantial recurring revenue streams that are less cyclical than demand for automobiles, allowing for smoother financial performance and more consistent free cash flows at an automaker like Ford.
Oct 22, 2019
Morgan Stanley Could See Lower Capital Requirements
Image Source: Morgan Stanley 3rd Quarter Earnings Presentation. "...the Wealth Management and Investment Management segments...are the crown jewels at Morgan Stanley with returns on tangible equity of 37% and 36%, respectively, in the quarter. Flows are positive and market levels have been friendly, though that can change on a dime." -- Matthew Warren
Oct 21, 2019
Coca-Cola Posts a Nice Quarter But Shares Too Pricey
The top end of our fair value estimate range for Coca-Cola sits at $48 per share, significantly below where shares of KO are trading at as of this writing as we think the market has gotten ahead of itself on this one. While Coca-Cola is targeting higher growth areas, like ready-to-drink coffee beverages, that growth trajectory isn’t strong enough to support its current valuation, in our view.The top end of our fair value estimate range for Coca-Cola sits at $48 per share, significantly below where shares of KO are trading at as of this writing as we think the market has gotten ahead of itself on this one. While Coca-Cola is targeting higher growth areas, like ready-to-drink coffee beverages, that growth trajectory isn’t strong enough to support its current valuation, in our view.
Oct 20, 2019
Johnson & Johnson’s Talc Problems Hit Another Bump
Image Shown: Johnson & Johnson’s embattled ‘Baby Care’ segment performed poorly during the third quarter of 2019. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – IR Presentation. Johnson & Johnson was back in the news Friday October 18 when the company announced it was voluntarily recalling “a single lot” of its embattled Johnson’s Baby Powder product in the US due to alleged asbestos contamination risks. The US Food and Drug Administration tested a single bottle from this lot, according to Johnson & Johnson, with the federal regulator noting that sub-trace levels (no greater than 0.00002%) of chrysotile asbestos had been detected in the bottle. Johnson & Johnson plans to vigorously contest these allegations and maintains that its talc products don’t contain asbestos.
Oct 20, 2019
Goldman Sachs' Return Metrics Remain Subpar
Image Source: Goldman Sachs 3Q2019 Earnings Presentation. Our overall take on Goldman Sachs is that, given the lower amount of leverage the bank is able to employ under the current regulatory regime, it is very difficult for it to replicate the mid-to-high teens return on equity it put up in the go-go years leading up to the Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is now a bank holding company and is trying to add deposits to bring funding costs down toward those of their money-center peers. This is a difficult ask and a long road, though we note it has certainly made progress bidding up for deposits.
Oct 18, 2019
Buffett Favorite, Bank of America a Bargain
Image Source: Bank of America Earnings Presentation. “If Bank of America can continue to narrow the return on capital gap to JPMorgan, we expect its shares will grow into our $35 fair value estimate.” -- Matthew Warren
Oct 18, 2019
Philip Morris International: Free Cash Flow King With Upside Potential
Image Shown: Philip Morris International's Marlboro cigarette brand remains very popular worldwide. Pricing power is essential to offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales volumes as the company positions itself for alternative tobacco products to become a larger part of its revenue streams. Image Source: Philip Morris International – Third quarter 2019 earnings presentation. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a quality high-yield play with good dividend coverage in a low interest rate environment. Strong pricing power enables the firm to offset sales declines of its traditional cigarette volumes as the company waits for its alternative smoking offerings (like IQOS) to represent a bigger chunk of company-wide sales. Please note that foreign currency headwinds remain significant, but manageable. As of this writing, Philip Morris International yields 5.8%.
Oct 17, 2019
Honeywell’s Aerospace Division Its Crown Jewel
Image Source: 3Q 2019 Earnings Release. We’re huge fans of Honeywell. The company’s Aero operations are its crown jewel, and while Boeing is facing some troubles these days, we don’t expect much impact on Honeywell at all. In fact, we expect commercial aerospace to remain strong, even in the face of broader industrial weakness. The risks to the company’s HBT business could be starting to mount given some concerns in commercial real estate, but management isn’t really seeing any signs of yet, pointing to only moderating growth in 2020. The SPS division, while a headwind, probably won’t be a factor next year, but it could bounce back as inventories are cleared from the channel.
Oct 17, 2019
Citigroup Lags Peers in Key Metrics
Image Source: Matt Buck. Citigroup remains well capitalized with a 11.6% Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio, but there isn’t room to lever up. Management has recently expressed less optimism about reaching its previously stated goal of reaching a 13.5% ROTCE in 2020, and the market consensus has them coming up short of the same goal. Operating leverage has helped the bank improve this metric by several percentage points in the past few years, but it appears that the cost-cutting road is getting increasingly difficult. Now more revenue dependent in improving its return metric, this leaves the bank also counting on the 11-year economic upcycle to continue. It is therefore unsurprising that this bank trades right near its tangible book value of $69.03 per share. Our fair value estimate remains $71 per share.


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