Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 24, 2015

China, Petrobras and the Circling Sharks
A key gauge of manufacturing activity in China plummets to Financial Crisis lows, Brazil’s Petrobras may be the first major casualty of the country’s deepening recession, and lenders are beginning to tighten the noose on overleveraged commodity producers in America.

Sep 18, 2015

The Fed Freezes; Outlook as Bad as Feared or Worse?
The global economy may be far worse than even some pessimists believe, as the need for a continued ZIRP (zero interest-rate policy) remains the Fed’s tactic, at least for now.

Sep 16, 2015

Microsoft Raises Dividend in a Big Way!
Microsoft raises quarterly dividend 16.1%, to $0.36 per share.

Sep 15, 2015

As the World Turns
We’re keeping our eyes on a number of things. First, we’re monitoring property prices in Shanghai and in other larger Chinese cities to assess the potential calamity that falling housing prices and deflation would have on the country’s banking sector and the likelihood of contagion via the British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the US ones, namely Citigroup and JP Morgan. Second, we’re watching the price of crude oil closely, as its fall will have huge implications on the earnings trajectory of companies that benefit (airlines, restaurants) as well as the ones that suffer (upstream and energy services). The net effect of falling crude oil prices has thus far been negative for S&P 500 earnings, but this may change as the energy sector becomes an ever-smaller part of index construction. Third, who can forget about the Fed, the expected duration of any tightening monetary cycle, and the resulting implications on dividend-paying stocks as Treasury yields rise?

Sep 14, 2015

The Puzzling Attack on Alibaba
Alibaba is not a “dot-bomb” like the infamous blow-ups in the US in the late 1990s/early 2000s. The Chinese e-commerce giant is significantly profitable and free cash flow positive, and growth prospects are tremendous. Calling for a ~15 times multiple on next year’s earnings, as a large publisher has done, where next year’s earnings are but a fraction of the company’s earnings power 5-10 years from now is an attempt, in our view, to punish the stock at a vulnerable time when global economies are shuddering and the Chinese equity markets continue to face immense pressure. Our estimate of the firm’s long-term intrinsic value is significantly higher than its current market price, but the mounting proliferation of fear may very well hurt shares in the near term.

Sep 10, 2015

The Importance of a Holistic Investment Approach
Go beyond the dividend to understand the business…

Sep 10, 2015

Valuentum's Slide Deck Materials for "Silicon Valley"
President Brian Nelson shares his slide deck for his trip to Silicon Valley this weekend.

Sep 9, 2015

Talking Technicals: The “Golden Triangle of Destiny”
Volatility may dampen the next few trading sessions until the Fed’s decision. The odds are stacked against the continuation of this multi-year bull market, however.

Sep 8, 2015

5 US-Centric Undervalued Stocks with Fantastic Economics
With most non-US markets crumbling, the resilience of a still-expanding US economy coupled with a strong greenback may make US stocks relative outperformers. Screen: Economic castles with a high percentage of revenue generated in the US that are trading at a large discount to our estimate of their intrinsic value.

Sep 7, 2015

La Decada Perdida Revisitado? Brazil’s Economy Is Teetering on Disaster
Brazil may look to throw its international reserve buffers to stem any sovereign crisis, but even if the country doesn’t experience financial catastrophe, the coming decade may not be much better than “La Decada Perdida” (“The Lost Decade”) that plagued Latin America during the 1980s. The largest economy in Latin America is on the brink of disaster.