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Valuentum Commentary
Nov 20, 2019
Economic Commentary: Marks, Dalio, and the Discount Rate
Image Source: Mike Cohen. We sat down with the Valuentum team to discuss their latest thoughts on recent economic developments. To kick off the conversation, let’s start with the team’s views on the latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks: Mysterious. For those that don’t know Howard, he is the Director and Co-Chairman of Oaktree, which managed about $122 billion in AUM, as of September 2019. The memo goes into depth on the reasons for negative interest rates, the impact of negative interest rates, and opines on whether the US will ever see negative interest rates. Then, we’ll go from there! Aug 29, 2019
Where Are the Safe Havens?
"We believe that staying diversified as in holding a broad swath of ideas as in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the equity portion of one’s allocation makes a lot of sense in any environment...High yield dividend investing may become more and more popular in coming years as rates across the globe approach 0%, and the amount of negative-yielding debt proliferates." -- Brian Nelson, CFA Aug 26, 2019
The Valuentum Team Talks Powell Speech and Threat of Global Recession
Last week, China issued retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Trump responded in kind, escalating trade tensions. Caught in the middle of this US-China trade war is the Fed, however. Let’s sit down with the Valuentum team and kick things off with our thoughts on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, Challenges for Monetary Policy issued August 23 in Jackson Hole, WY. Aug 22, 2019
What’s on the Valuentum Team’s Mind?
Let’s get the Valuentum team’s thoughts on recent developments. Aug 14, 2019
Alert: Markets Weakening, Raising Cash
Image Shown: In our December 26, 2018, note to members, we moved the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to "fully invested" from a cash "allocation" of 30% and 20%, respectively at the high end of the range. We are raising cash today. We are removing the Energy Select Sector SPDR and the Financial Select Sector SPDR from both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to arrive at a ~10% cash position in both newsletter portfolios. Aug 7, 2019
Join the Conversation on the Market Plunge
The Valuentum team shares its thoughts on the recent surge in volatility and collapse in interest rates amid a trade and currency war between two of the largest economies in the world, the US and China. Jul 22, 2019
Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate of Morgan Stanley
Image Source: Morgan Stanley 2Q2019 Earnings Presentation. We are lowering our fair value estimate of Morgan Stanley to $45 from $50 to update our view of what mid-cycle results might look like. Jul 19, 2019
In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Marches On
We like what we saw out of a few industrial names, including Honeywell, Danaher and Dover. We thought Taiwan Semi’s report was okay, and Philip Morris continues to navigate declining cigarette volumes. We include our thoughts on some of the mid-size banks. Jul 19, 2019
Pounding the Table on Bank of America
Image Source: Bank of America 2Q19 Earnings Presentation. Bank of America can be bought for a valuation that reflects the bank as if it were to stand still, even though it is steadily going after the competition and improving its own efficiency and return on capital metrics. We may look to add Bank of America to the newsletter portfolios. Jul 18, 2019
Goldman Sachs May Continue to Suffer
Image Source: Goldman Sachs 2Q2019 Earnings Presentation. We don’t find Goldman to be very attractive trading above its tangible book value when its return on capital barely clears its cost of capital in the 10th year of a bull market. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
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omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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