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Valuentum Commentary
Jun 30, 2019
Chevron's Permian Opportunity, Outsize Dividend Yield
Image Source: Chevron Corporation -- IR Presentation. Large oil & gas companies like Chevron are often sought after for their nice yields and promising growth prospects; however, the space has been undergoing a medium/long-term bust since late-2014. Chevron earned a return on invested capital, excluding goodwill, that was lower than its estimated weighted-average cost of capital in 2018 (its ROIC ex-goodwill were negative in 2016 and 2017). We don’t expect that to change until fiscal 2020 at the earliest, under our baseline assumptions, but we do expect Chevron’s financial performance (and returns) to improve materially through the early-2020s. That isn’t enough to get use excited about Chevron’s shares and its nice yield, but we are monitoring the space at-large. May 3, 2019
Energy Earnings Roundup
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation -- First quarter 2019 earnings presentation. May 2, 2019
Occidental Petroleum, Backed by Buffett’s Financial Firepower, Makes a Go At Anadarko Petroleum in an Affront to Chevron
Image Source: Occidental Petroleum Corp -- IR presentation. The bidding war over Anadarko Petroleum is heating up with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway offering to invest $10.0 billion in a new 8% preferred issue from Occidental Petroleum, along with warrants to purchase up to 80 million shares of OXY at $62.50, if the energy company successfully acquires Anadarko. Occidental is bidding against Chevron because both firms want Anadarko’s Permian Basin acreage, but the leverage Occidental would take on the fund the deal would be extremely onerous in our view. Apr 14, 2019
Chevron Joins the Ranks of Exxon Mobil and Shell After Buying Anadarko
Image Source: Chevron Corporation – IR presentation. Chevron is buying Anadarko. Chevron will have to show that the projected operational synergies and related capital intensity reductions actually materialize through this acquisition, as execution risk is very material in the oil & gas world. We will be monitoring the industry as further consolidation is possible with interest rates remaining low for the time being and in light of oil prices moving sharply higher since January. Feb 28, 2019
ConocoPhillips: Turnaround Story in Progress
Image Source: ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips disappointed income-oriented investors when it cut its payout back in early 2016, a situation that was predictable given the company’s weakened Dividend Cushion ratio. However, a lot has changed since then. Now, ConocoPhillips’ Dividend Cushion ratio has climbed back to 3.5, and it’s likely the turnaround strategy launched by management several years ago will enable ConocoPhillips to reclaim its status as an income growth idea in the future. We continue to watch the company closely. Feb 28, 2019
Earnings Not So Hot, High Yield Dividend Newsletter Archives
No change to newsletter portfolios. Jan 3, 2019
Brace for More Volatility
Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August of last year. The markets have broken through key support levels, and now support has become resistance. Volatility remains heightened since the low-vol ETN blew up in February.This article is the introduction to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter, both of which will be released today due to the holiday January 1. Dec 31, 2018
Valuentum Stock Screeners
Brian Nelson provides members with an update on Valuentum's stock screeners and the significant number of forward-looking data we provide. This article was sent to members via email December 29. Dec 20, 2018
Market Mayhem -- Alerts for Members
Dear members -- we released a number of emails today. Please read and let us know if you have any questions. We're here for you. Oct 31, 2018
Upstream Oil Major On the Upswing
Image Source: Author’s Calculations and SEC Filings. ConocoPhillips appears poised to grow its dividend thanks to a materially healthier balance sheet and an improving free cash flow profile. Volatile energy resource pricing will always be a long-term risk to the payout, but the near term looks bright for the upstream oil major. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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