Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

JD.com Set to Take on Amazon Head On
Image Source: JD.com fourth-quarter presentation. Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com has grown at a tremendous rate in recent years, and it is expected to continue taking advantage of a ripe opportunity in its home nation. However, management has more grandiose plans for its burgeoning e-commerce platform as it expects to make its US debut before the end of 2018.

Mar 22, 2018

Trump Targets China with Tariffs
Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov. Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade.

Mar 7, 2018

Protectionists Gaining Control, Implications on Europe and China
It looks like the US-imposed tariffs are moving forward, and we’re starting to hear chatter about retaliation from Europe. Could China be next? Canada and Mexico may be exempt from the tariffs, however.

Feb 27, 2018

Buffett’s Berkshire, Corporate Buybacks on Pace for Record; Lithium, Steel Prices on the Move
Image Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shareholder Letter (2017). “Fifteen common stock investments at year end that had the largest market value.” “The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.” – Warren Buffett, Shareholder Letter (2017)

Feb 8, 2018

Rising Risk Free Rates Threatening Market, Removing CVS and Hanesbrands
The most important variable to keep your eye on, the 10-year Treasury, is rising, and the long-term implications on equity values could be considerable. We don’t think the moves thus far have been too disruptive, but continued concerns over US tax receipts and infrastructure/defense spending could send sovereign yields roaring higher. As fourth-quarter earnings season marches on, let’s take a look at some meaningful recent quarterly reports. We’re also shedding two companies from the simulated newsletter portfolios.

Feb 7, 2018

Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back
Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 - The Missile Defense Agency's Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine -- All of this over just a couple basis point increase in the 10-year and one very, very small ETF losing most of its value? What if something truly material happens? This market is fragile.

Dec 1, 2017

Shopping for Income Within Retail in a Digital World
Image Source: Mike Mozart. The 2017 holiday shopping season has shown that e-commerce has never been stronger and it will only continue to grow. But there is still potential for income generation among more traditional retailers. Investors must be tremendously discerning in the retail area, however, as margin, and ultimately free cash flow, pressures remain prevalent. We like Walmart, Target, Costco as income ideas in the broader retail space, but TJX Companies and Best Buy may be worth a look, too. We're avoiding the department stores and teen retail like the plague, regardless of their Dividend Cushion ratios.

May 1, 2017

Seeking Balance: What’s Happening in the Crude Oil and Iron Ore Markets
Image Source: Sollven Melindo. Commodity prices are notoriously volatile as the global markets often struggle to maintain a sustainable balance of supply-demand. Let’s take a look at some recent developments and coming events that are impacting the prices of crude oil and iron ore.

Apr 28, 2017

More First-Quarter Earnings Flying In: GM, Ford, Big Oil and More
Image Source: General Motors. GM’s dividend yield and valuation opportunity are incredible, while Microsoft’s free cash flow generation and solid net cash position speak to tremendous dividend strength. We liked what we saw out of Union Pacific during the first quarter, and you have to be aware of Big Oil’s bloated balance sheets. All of this and more included in this piece.

Jan 24, 2017

Alibaba Group: Still the Quintessential “Play” on China?
Image Shown: Alibaba’s strong free cash flow generation; source: Alibaba. Alibaba has taken a lot of heat from other publishers, but we’ve long liked the company even if it may no longer be a part of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Some balk at its valuation, but the company’s free cash flow generation and strong balance-sheet net cash position offer substantial legitimacy and support to shares.

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Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor