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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
Aug 9, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 9
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Aug 7, 2024
Disney Achieves Profitability Across Combined Streaming Businesses
Image: Disney’s shares are under pressure despite marked improvement in earnings. Disney noted that within its Experiences division, “segment revenue growth was impacted by moderation of consumer demand towards the end of Q3 that exceeded (its) previous expectations.” Though the pace of consumer demand at Disney theme parks remains a big question during the current fiscal fourth quarter, management’s new full year adjusted earnings per share growth target is now 30%, which reveals a company that is making progress from its troubles a couple years ago. We value shares of Disney just shy of $100 each.
Aug 7, 2024
Amazon's Second Quarter Results Were Mixed But Free Cash Flow Improved Significantly
Image: Amazon traded aggressively lower following its second-quarter results. Though Amazon missed second-quarter revenue consensus estimates, and the midpoint of its third-quarter revenue and earnings guidance came in below the consensus forecasts at the time, we continue to point to aggressive growth at AWS coupled with the firm’s strong free cash flow generation as reasons to not be bearish on the stock. We won’t be adding Amazon to any newsletter portfolio as we are already quite tech-heavy, but the company’s share price slide could provide an entry point on a name with strong fundamental momentum.
Aug 1, 2024
In the News: MO, META, QCOM, PSA, ALB
Image Source: Meta Platforms. Altria's improved performance will be weighted to the second half of 2024. Meta Platforms remains a free cash flow generating powerhouse. Qualcomm's free cash flow has been impressive as well. Public Storage cut its funds from operations (FFO) outlook on weak customer move-in rents driven by the competitive environment, while Albemarle continues to suffer from reduced lithium market pricing.
Jul 31, 2024
Microsoft's Cash Flow Generation Robust, Azure Expected to Accelerate
Image Source: Microsoft. Microsoft ended the June quarter with $75.5 billion in total cash and cash equivalents and $51.6 billion in short- and long-term debt on the books, good for a nice net cash position. In the three months ended June 30, cash flow from operations surged to $37.2 billion from $28.8 billion in the same period a year ago, while capital spending totaled $13.9 billion in the June quarter versus $8.9 billion in last year’s quarter. Free cash flow increased 17.7% in the quarter, coming in at $23.3 billion versus $19.8 billion in the same period a year ago. During the quarter, Microsoft returned $8.4 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. Shares yield 0.7% at the time of this writing.
Jul 30, 2024
Dividend Aristocrat Enterprise Products Partners Showcases Strong Earnings Growth in Second Quarter
Image Source: 2Q 2024 Enterprise Products Partners Earnings Slides. On July 30, Enterprise Products Partners reported decent second quarter results. During the quarter, the midstream energy company generated net income attributable to common unitholders of $1.4 billion, or $0.64 per unit on a fully diluted basis, a 12% increase from the same period a year ago. Distributable cash flow [DCF] came in at $1.8 billion, up from $1.7 billion in last year’s quarter and covered its distribution 1.6 times. Enterprise increased its distribution 5% in the second quarter, to $2.10 per common unit on an annualized basis, marking the 26th consecutive year it has raised its payout.
Jul 30, 2024
Phillips 66 Records Strong Free Cash Flow in Second Quarter
Image Source: Phillips 66 Investor Update. We like Phillips 66’s investment prospects. The company recently raised its mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA target to $14 billion by 2025. It has a strong investment-grade credit rating of A3/BBB+, with a net debt-to-capital ratio target between 25%-30%. Maintaining capital discipline is par for the course for Phillips 66, as it has generated 12% average ROCE since 2012. The company targets returning more than 50% of operating cash to shareholders, too. Its shares yield 3.3% at the time of this writing.
Jul 29, 2024
McDonald’s Speaks of Cautious Consumer But Traction with $5 Meal Deal
McDonald’s second quarter results weren’t great. Comparable store sales and consolidated operating income fell during the period, but McDonald’s lapped a very strong second quarter of 2023, which included a double-digit comp. Diluted earnings per share also declined at a mid-single-digit pace. That said, however, McDonald’s $5 meal deal is gaining traction, and we think it is part of the solution for lower guest counts driven by its recent strategic pricing actions. McDonald’s hasn’t been a strong performer in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio of late, but we remain optimistic on its prospects in the current inflationary environment. Shares yield 2.6%.
Jul 28, 2024
3M Looks to a Brighter Future, Shares Rally 20%+
Image Source: 3M’s second quarter results were better than feared. 3M’s stock rallied more than 20% following its second quarter earnings report, as the firm works to put settlements for faulty earplugs and PFAS pollution as well as its spin-off of Solventum behind it. With most of its troubles in the rear-view mirror, 3M can now focus more of its efforts on organic performance, which was solid in the second quarter, despite some portfolio/geographic shifts in its ‘Consumer’ division. 3M’s free cash flow conversion remains robust, and its net debt stood at a manageable ~$3 billion at the end of the quarter. Shares of 3M yield 2.2% at the time of this writing.


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