Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 22, 2020

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.

Feb 21, 2020

Cole Haan Files to Go Public
Maker of footwear, handbags, sunglasses, and various other accessories Cole Haan has filed to go public. One thing that makes this planned IPO particularly interesting is that Cole Haan was free cash flow positive in both fiscal 2018 (period ended June 2, 2018) to fiscal 2019 (period ended June 1,2019), generating $35 million and $38 million in free cash flows, respectively. The firm plans on trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, run by Nasdaq Inc, under the ticker CLHN. Additionally, please note that after the planned IPO, funds advised by British private-equity firms Apax Partners LLP and Apax Partners are expected to continue to own a “majority… of the shares eligible to vote in the election of our directors” according to Cole Haan’s S-1 filing with the SEC.

Feb 7, 2020

Update on Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: 31,000+ Infections, 630+ Deaths
Image Source: 2019-nCoV, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The number of infections and deaths related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus has surged since our last update, but we maintain our view that investors should keep a level head. We continue to wait to add protection to the newsletter portfolios as the market absorbs a massive liquidity injection from the PBOC.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Jan 12, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the Luxury Goods - Established Brands Industry
Image Source: Kevin Wu. Luxury goods firms differentiate themselves based on brand name, perception, and quality in order to generate excess returns on invested capital through the economic cycle. Building a large, successful luxury brand is difficult, leaving those that possess them with intangible competitive advantages that are not easily overcome by new entrants. Growth in emerging middle classes and China will be the key demand drivers going forward, though the strongest brands will also grow successfully via market share gains. Though changes in consumer preferences should be watched closely, we like the structure of the group.

Dec 27, 2019

Nike Is Generously Valued
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc have been on an upward tear in 2019; however, we think the market has now gotten ahead of itself. While Nike runs a great business, the firm is unlikely to realize the kind of growth rates required to justify its lofty valuation as of this writing. Should the company underperform for even one quarter, that could lead to a sharp correction in the share price of NKE. Nike is performing well in multiple categories, and the news that the US and China reached a “Phase One” partial trade truce further improves the company’s outlook. That said, Nike’s current market price is based on growth assumptions that are very unlikely to be realized, in our view. Should the company stumble for even one quarter, that could see a sharp correction in the share price of NKE.

Sep 26, 2019

Nike Posts a Solid Quarter and Issues Strong Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc pop on September 25 after reporting a strong first quarter for fiscal 2020 and issuing favorable guidance for the full fiscal year.Nike reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (ended August 31) on September 24 and investors clearly liked what they saw. The firm has been performing quite well given foreign currency headwinds and the ongoing US-China trade war, and it’s clear that hasn’t undermined core demand for its popular sportswear and equipment products. We are still staying on the sidelines given how shares of NKE are richly valued, in our view.

Apr 3, 2019

Facebook’s Huge New Opportunity in Instagram Checkout, Reiterating Fair Value Estimate ~$230
Image Source: Facebook's InstagramWe continue to like Facebook, and we’re huge fans of Instagram Checkout. Many may not know it yet, but Instagram Checkout may mark the beginning of retailers’ websites becoming obsolete. The sell-off last summer in Facebook was a big gift for those that stuck with our thesis.

Jan 2, 2019

Here It Comes… Apple’s Shot Across the Bow
Image Source: Tinh tế Photo. Apple surprised the market by issuing first-quarter 2019 guidance below expectations. The company pointed to weakness in China as the main culprit. We continue to expect heightened levels of volatility, and investors in key American icons that might be impacted by consumer backlash in China should be on high alert. No changes to the simulated newsletter portfolios as a result of the news.

Dec 31, 2018

Valuentum Stock Screeners
Brian Nelson provides members with an update on Valuentum's stock screeners and the significant number of forward-looking data we provide. This article was sent to members via email December 29.