Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 21, 2025

Walmart’s Earnings Outlook Falls Short of Expectations
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart ended its fiscal year with cash and cash equivalents of $9.0 billion and total debt of $45.8 billion. Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $36.4 billion, an increase of $0.7 billion from last year, while free cash flow remained robust at $12.7 billion. Looking to the first quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales are expected to increase 3%-4%, while adjusted operating income is expected to advance 0.5%-2%, with adjusted earnings per share targeted in the range of $0.57-$0.58, below the $0.65 consensus estimate. For all of fiscal 2026, net sales are anticipated to increase 3%-4%, with adjusted operating income expected to increase 3.5%-5.5%. Adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $2.50-$2.60 for the full year (consensus was at $2.76), inclusive of a $0.05 headwind from currency. Shares yield 0.9%.

Feb 21, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 21
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 19, 2025

Albemarle Has Line of Sight to Breakeven Free Cash Flow in 2025
Image Source: Albemarle. Albemarle recorded full-year cash flow from operations of $702 million, which represented 60% of adjusted EBITDA, revealing good cash flow conversion. Management plans to further reduce 2025 capital expenditures by $100 million, to the range of $700-$800 million, down more than 50% on a year-over-year basis. Albemarle noted that it has a “line of sight to breakeven free cash flow in 2025,” which should alleviate some pressure on its stock.

Feb 19, 2025

Republic Services Remains a Cash Cow
Image Source: Republic Services. For the full year, Republic’s cash provided by operating activities was $3.94 billion, up 8.8% from last year. Adjusted free cash flow was $2.18 billion, an increase of 10% versus the prior year. The company returned $1.18 billion in cash to shareholders during 2024, consisting of $490 million of share repurchases and $687 million of dividends paid. Looking to 2025, Republic expects revenue in the range of $16.85-$16.95 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $5.275-$5.325 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $6.82-$6.90 for the year, while adjusted free cash flow is expected in the range of $2.32-$2.36 billion. We continue to like Republic Services as an idea in the newsletter portfolios.

Feb 14, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 14
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 13, 2025

Cisco Ups Fiscal 2025 Guidance Again
Image Source: Cisco. Looking to fiscal third quarter guidance, Cisco's revenue is expected to be between $13.9-$14.1 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share to be between $0.90-$0.92. For all of fiscal 2025, management expects revenue in the range of $56-$56.5 billion (was $55.3-$56.3 billion) and non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $3.68-$3.74 (was $3.60-$3.66 per share). We continue to like Cisco as a holding in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $73 per share.

Feb 11, 2025

Vertex Pharma Is One of Our Favorite Biotechs
Image: Vertex Pharma has performed quite well since the beginning of 2023. Looking to 2025, Vertex expects total revenue of $11.75-$12 billion, which includes expectations for continued growth in its cystic fibrosis portfolio, “including the U.S. launch of ALYFTREK, as well as continued uptake of CASGEVY in multiple regions; and early contributions from the launch of JOURNAVX." Cash and total marketable securities as of the end of last year were $11.2 billion, compared to $13.7 billion at the end of 2023 due to the cash consideration paid to acquire Alpine and share buybacks. Vertex had no traditional debt. We continue to like Vertex Pharma as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 10, 2025

Philip Morris’ Smoke-Free Portfolio Continues to Deliver
Image: Philip Morris' stock has performed well of late. Looking to 2025, Philip Morris’ reported diluted earnings per share is forecast to be in the range of $6.55-$6.68 versus reported diluted earnings per share of $4.52 in 2024. Excluding amortization of intangibles, adjusted diluted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $7.04-$7.17, reflecting 7.2%-9.1% growth versus adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.57 in 2024. Also excluding adverse currency impacts, management’s 2025 guidance represents a projected increase of 10.5%-12.5%, to the range of $7.26-$7.39, versus adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.57 in 2024. For 2025, operating cash flow is expected around $11 billion, while capital spending is expected at approximately $1.5 billion, revealing expected free cash flow of $9.5 billion on the year. We continue to like Philip Morris in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 10, 2025

Amazon Expects Elevated Capital Spending in 2025
Image: Amazon's stock has done quite well in recent months. Amazon’s operating cash flow increased 36%, to $115.9 billion for the trailing twelve months, while free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $38.2 billion compared to $36.8 billion for the trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2023. Purchases of propery and equipment were $27.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $14.6 billion in the same quarter last year. Capital spending is expected to be north of $100 billion in 2025. Looking to the first quarter of 2025, Amazon’s net sales are expected to be between $151-$155.5 billion (below the consensus forecast of $158.3 billion), or to grow between 5%-9%, while operating income is expected to be between $14-$18 billion, compared with $15.3 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Cash and marketable securities at the end of the calendar year totaled $101.2 billion, while long-term debt was $52.6 billion. We continue to like Amazon as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 7, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 7
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.