Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 26, 2024

An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted
As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity.

Aug 9, 2024

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Jul 12, 2024

JPMorgan Chase’s Return on Capital Shines in Second Quarter
Image Source: Hakan Dahlstrom. On July 12, JPMorgan Chase reported second quarter results that beat expectations on the top line, but came up a bit short on the bottom line. JPMorgan is an important bellwether for the global economy, and its second quarter results spoke of continued strength and high returns on capital. We include Financial Select SPDR in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to capture diversification benefits from the largest financial institutions. Shares of JPM yield 2.2% at the time of this writing.

Jun 24, 2024

FactSet Research Reveals Softness on Top Line
Image: FactSet’s shares have been choppy the past couple years. On June 21, FactSet Research reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2024 results that showed revenue increasing 4.3%, in-line with expectations, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.37, up 15.3% from last year’s quarter and better than what the Street was looking for. Quarterly free cash flow was $216.9 million, up 12.6%. FactSet’s recent 6% dividend increase marked the 25th consecutive year the firm has raised its dividend on a stock split-adjusted basis. Shares yield ~1%.

Mar 11, 2024

You Already Own Whatever Your Investment Will Pay You in Dividends
Image Source: Images Money. Stocks are generally valued on the present value of all their future free cash flows, which already include future dividend payments. A company’s dividend policy may impact an investor’s eagerness to pay a higher price for shares on the basis of a higher yield, but the dividend is a symptom of future free cash flows (and therefore intrinsic value), not the driver behind it.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Jan 26, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 26
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jan 21, 2024

3 Substantial Benefits of Dividend Growth Investing
Image Source: www.epictop10.com. There are three primary benefits of a well-executed dividend growth strategy, one that is carried out with prudence and care and one that pays careful attention to the intrinsic value of the stock and its critical cash-based components. Albert Einstein is reported to have called compound interest the "eighth wonder of the world," but dividend growth investing has the potential to offer long-term investors so much more! Let's explain.

Jan 19, 2024

Stock Reports on 25 Dividend Kings to Pad Your Dividend Growth Portfolio
Image Source: Jason Train. Investors love dividends! After all, research has shown that companies that have paid an ever-increasing dividend for a long time do quite well in the stock market. In this note, you can download the stock reports of 25 Dividend Kings, or stocks that have raised their dividends in each of the past 50 years!

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?